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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 10:57:43 GMT -5
The reason Quinny is vaulting up the standings as well is PPS differential offense vs. defense. They lead the MAAC in that. I think I posted that they were due for a big run at the end of December because of this. They were losing early on mostly because of possessions lost due to the absence of Kelly etc.
Siena's reason for improvement is the same. However, it's not because of offense which has actually gotten worse in MAAC play. Siena doesn't foul a lot...and as Siena's D has gotten better from a FG% standpoint....the PPS Siena has allowed to MAAC opponents has PLUMMETED.
Siena PPS differential in OOC:
Offense = 1.20 Defense = 1.35
Differential = (.15) ...that's like -8.4 PPG based on 56 shots per game (which I think is MAAC average if I remember).
Siena's PPS differential in the MAAC:
Offense = 1.16
Defense = 1.12
Differential = +.04 (+2.24 PPG ish)
This is why Siena is winning right now. Defensive PPS.
Smithen is big a part of the PPS for sure with his 1.74 PPS and his great D....but also he has gotten us a few more possessions per game on top of this with a few more steals, charges, and rebounds, less TOs, and less fouls over what Darwiche was getting us.
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stbernie
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Post by stbernie on Feb 13, 2019 11:01:32 GMT -5
Pickett, Carey and Burns might be the most dynamic trio we have ever had (no disrespect to 2008-2010). Burns is easily the best center we have ever had and Walker might be the most athletic and talented player...Just wait and see. Whoa, there, Bernie. Those are two pretty interesting statements. I guess we'll just have to "wait and see" as you say. But Hasbrouck, Franklin and Ubiles were a pretty "dynamic trio" themselves, and have three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances (including two first-round wins) on their resumes. And throw in Ronald Moore and Ryan Rossiter, too, with any of the other three, and you still have a pretty "dynamic trio". I've never seen Elijah Burns play, but to say that he ".....is easily the best center we have ever had".......well, I'm not so sure about that. I hope he is outstanding for us next year (assuming he stays and plays), but until proven otherwise, Ryan Rossiter is the best center who has ever played at Siena. A guy who was MAAC Player of the Year, as Ryan was, has some pretty decent credentials. We will win an NCAA tournament game next year for sure. Not a doubt in my mind. As I said before, and again you heard it here first, we will be a top 40 team in the country next year! You can call me crazy but I also said Siena would win the MAAC this year after the Providence game this year. I'm just saying don't be surprised when it happens, but I'll just kinda leave it at that before everyone thinks I'm nuts
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 11:02:46 GMT -5
Because of all that number jarble....I think Quinny is Siena's toughest MAAC test...as until Siena turned the D around....they were the only team in the MAAC with a positive PPS differential.
I think Siena loses that game....especially since, with Marfo and Kelly, they can stay close possession wise with regards to rebounds and TOs.
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JK
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Post by JK on Feb 13, 2019 11:36:12 GMT -5
I'm very happy with where Siena is at this year but I would remind people that the league is WAAAAAY down from prior years. I'm not sure we do this well if we were playing in last year's MAAC. I know everyone hates Jimmy but he'd probably have managed about the same record this year. I thought about this for a few minutes and your statement may be correct, but Siena is in a better place today, here's why I think so. With Jimmy the team would have had more overall talent. The problem is that with that talent and the state of league, 8-4 could be considered under performing or possibly on target. Finishing with a 4-14 MAAC record last year was bad, really bad. The year previous to that (2016-17), finishing at 12-8 (albeit tied for third in the conference) was a disappointment. I know they were picked preseason to finish second, but 12-8 with a senior laden team was a bit of a let down. With that said, after losing the seniors, you expect some drop off. The issue was that outside the first recruiting class the talent was spotty. It's not fair, nor correct, to say that everyone Jimmy brought in was a low D1 or D2 player, but he did not bring in enough MAAC level players to replace the likes of Wright and Long. Nico was a good find, but Jimmy is not the type of guy to have a player like Nico (talented, some lack of focus and discipline) to make him a better player. I always thought that Lavon Long was much more talented than he ever showed at Siena. You could see a star in the making during his freshman year. Long would take over a game and do some amazing things. As good as he was, he never took the next step. Again, Like Nico, Lavon had some issues with focus and discipline. Some of that comes with being young, but you need to have a head coach to help players navigate that part of their life. They are away from home and there are a lot of distractions on a college campus. In some cases, stepping into a D1 basketball environment is their first taste of adversity. They are going to be playing with and against players that are more talented and work really hard. Some players are not ready for that when they enter D1 basketball. Some of them have relied on their raw talent and pushed through AAU by focusing on their one strength to become successful and not developing as a good "player", rather settling to be a one-trick pony. Jimmy is not a player developer, but he recruited players that needed development. The coaching staff wasn't built for player development, but that is the type of player they kept pursuing. I think it takes a strong minded, reasonably well developed and mature player to handle Jimmy's style of coaching. Unfortunately, Jimmy didn't recruit that way. Yanking a player 30 seconds into a game when they missed their first shot attempt is not a style for the faint of heart. Maybe you believe that players needs suck it up and deal with it. If that is the case, you need to identify and recruit players that fit that model. That model was not a good fit at Siena. Yes, Jimmy finished top 5 in the MAAC in 3 of his 5 seasons, but it went much deeper than that which has been discussed ad nauseam on this board. I never got into the like-Jimmy/hate-Jimmy argument. There is a lot that happened while Jimmy was here and both Jimmy and the school have to take those thing and learn from them a hopefully both come out better for it. Some people aren't cut out to be head coaches at certain levels. What's wrong with that? Mitch did some great things at Siena with Fran, but the success did not continue with him a the head coach. I am not going to hate the guy, it just wasn't a position that he was successful in. I know there are some pretty hard feelings from the members of the board with respect to the last two coaches, but I hope that both ex-coaches find something they love at a place that wants them and respects what they can give. Like JC keeps saying, "Get better everyday". If you made it through that meandering of sentences which had no real point, congratulations. I wish I had a prize to give you. Sorry for hijacking the thread. I love seeing the enthusiasm for the Siena program again and let's keep the wins coming. I have a feeling that we may need a bigger bandwagon before long... jump aboard, the more the merrier.
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Post by greenblood on Feb 13, 2019 11:40:49 GMT -5
Because of all that number jarble....I think Quinny is Siena's toughest MAAC test...as until Siena turned the D around....they were the only team in the MAAC with a positive PPS differential. I think Siena loses that game....especially since, with Marfo and Kelly, they can stay close possession wise with regards to rebounds and TOs. Well after watching Rider/Quinny last night, if we aren't 20 points ahead with less than a minute to go.....I don't think we are safe against Quinny. Could just be me.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 11:52:02 GMT -5
Because of all that number jarble....I think Quinny is Siena's toughest MAAC test...as until Siena turned the D around....they were the only team in the MAAC with a positive PPS differential. I think Siena loses that game....especially since, with Marfo and Kelly, they can stay close possession wise with regards to rebounds and TOs. Well after watching Rider/Quinny last night, if we aren't 20 points ahead with less than a minute to go.....I don't think we are safe against Quinny. Could just be me. For the record. Monmouth is 1.276/1.265 or +.011 in MAAC play. They are tops in MAAC play at getting to the FT line. Siena's low rate of fouling was put to the test and we fouled/failed. We couldn't keep their PPS low enough on D to beat them (66 pts on just 42 shots (1.57) last game). And then they beat us on possessions on top of that. We don't want to face either of these teams in the Tourney. These Saints will have to play their best games offensively and keep the fouling at a minimum. Other teams like Iona are dangerous for us too because of their offense but their defenses are so bad that we can make up for it on offense....but I'm not sure about Quinny and MU. They seem to have enough on both sides of the ball to beat us pretty consistently. Sadly, my money is on Quinny to win it all this year...because like us they don't foul...and in a head to head with Monmouth...that gives them enough of an advantage over them to win because they don't have our offensive deficiencies. We need a Smithen-esque explosion of PPS offense type game in the tourney to get by these guys.
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 13, 2019 12:31:50 GMT -5
Well after watching Rider/Quinny last night, if we aren't 20 points ahead with less than a minute to go.....I don't think we are safe against Quinny. Could just be me. For the record. Monmouth is 1.276/1.265 or +.011 in MAAC play. They are tops in MAAC play at getting to the FT line. Siena's low rate of fouling was put to the test and we fouled/failed. We couldn't keep their PPS low enough on D to beat them (66 pts on just 42 shots (1.57) last game). And then they beat us on possessions on top of that. We don't want to face either of these teams in the Tourney. These Saints will have to play their best games offensively and keep the fouling at a minimum. Other teams like Iona are dangerous for us too because of their offense but their defenses are so bad that we can make up for it on offense....but I'm not sure about Quinny and MU. They seem to have enough on both sides of the ball to beat us pretty consistently. Sadly, my money is on Quinny to win it all this year...because like us they don't foul...and in a head to head with Monmouth...that gives them enough of an advantage over them to win because they don't have our offensive deficiencies. We need a Smithen-esque explosion of PPS offense type game in the tourney to get by these guys. Monmouth & Quinny on paper seem to be the toughest match ups based upon observations & of course the #'s...…………..but I also think that both Smithen & Camper can be quite the defensive approach on both Young & Kelly for QU, so we will have to see how that plays out this Sunday...………...and I still feel we let Rice's squad off the hook twice, had we made 1 simple FT at the end in Albany we win that game but our players at that point were exhausted, then in their place we are laying the wood on them but good but then we don't score for 8+ minutes at the end of the first half (which is not reflective of our offensive effectiveness) which did us in...……..………………
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 12:43:05 GMT -5
For the record. Monmouth is 1.276/1.265 or +.011 in MAAC play. They are tops in MAAC play at getting to the FT line. Siena's low rate of fouling was put to the test and we fouled/failed. We couldn't keep their PPS low enough on D to beat them (66 pts on just 42 shots (1.57) last game). And then they beat us on possessions on top of that. We don't want to face either of these teams in the Tourney. These Saints will have to play their best games offensively and keep the fouling at a minimum. Other teams like Iona are dangerous for us too because of their offense but their defenses are so bad that we can make up for it on offense....but I'm not sure about Quinny and MU. They seem to have enough on both sides of the ball to beat us pretty consistently. Sadly, my money is on Quinny to win it all this year...because like us they don't foul...and in a head to head with Monmouth...that gives them enough of an advantage over them to win because they don't have our offensive deficiencies. We need a Smithen-esque explosion of PPS offense type game in the tourney to get by these guys. Monmouth & Quinny on paper seem to be the toughest match ups based up observations & of course the #'s...…………..but I also think that both Smithen & Camper can be quite the defensive approach on both Young & Kelly for QU, so we will have to see how that plays out this Sunday...………...and I still feel we let Rice's squad off the hook twice, had we made 1 simple FT at the end in Albany we win that game but our players at that point were exhausted, then in their place we are laying the wood on them but good but then we don't score for 8+ minutes at the end of the first half (which is not reflective of our offensive effectiveness) which did us in...……..……………… The 1st game Siena fouled half as much in more mins. It kept them within striking distance. Siena can certainly beat these teams on a given night. It's just that these teams create these challenges for Siena that make life more difficult. Saints can't foul these teams. And it would help Siena greatly if they had an out of the ordinary big FT night vs. these particular teams. Smithen driving more for us down the stretch run could help us accomplish this. Pickett and Fisher tend to avoid the contact more with jumpers and fadeaways....too many of which are in the midrange unfortunately. Elijah Burns both draws more fouls and shoots FTs better than Fisher (1.44 career PPS vs. Fisher's 1.197 this year). I'm hoping that next year, he steps up as a big key to Siena's increased offensive efficiency....even with potentially scoring less points per game than Fisher.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 13, 2019 12:47:45 GMT -5
The team to beat is Canisius. They hold a 4-0 record against the the other top 3 teams and also have 4 home games out of their last 6. Toughest game on paper is Monmouth on the road.
Q looks a lot like Siena in that they have recently started winning the close games, game will come down to who controls the pace of play. Siena shoots better from the field and has really improved their defense. Q is better from 3 and gets to the line. Neither team is great on the boards and Siena takes care of the ball better and forces more turnovers despite fewer possesions per game. If Siena can keep the game in the 60's, they'll have a great shot of winning.
I dont think we've heard the last from Rider, and think it's starts with them beating Monmouth this week.
All that said, Iona is the 3 time defending champion playing in a make or break kind of game tonight. Win and they are back in the conversation, lose and they'll likely have to win 4 in March.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 13, 2019 12:48:23 GMT -5
Well after watching Rider/Quinny last night, if we aren't 20 points ahead with less than a minute to go.....I don't think we are safe against Quinny. Could just be me. For the record. Monmouth is 1.276/1.265 or +.011 in MAAC play. They are tops in MAAC play at getting to the FT line. Siena's low rate of fouling was put to the test and we fouled/failed. We couldn't keep their PPS low enough on D to beat them (66 pts on just 42 shots (1.57) last game). And then they beat us on possessions on top of that. We don't want to face either of these teams in the Tourney. These Saints will have to play their best games offensively and keep the fouling at a minimum. Other teams like Iona are dangerous for us too because of their offense but their defenses are so bad that we can make up for it on offense....but I'm not sure about Quinny and MU. They seem to have enough on both sides of the ball to beat us pretty consistently. Sadly, my money is on Quinny to win it all this year...because like us they don't foul...and in a head to head with Monmouth...that gives them enough of an advantage over them to win because they don't have our offensive deficiencies. We need a Smithen-esque explosion of PPS offense type game in the tourney to get by these guys. Maybe you can explain why PPS does not factor in a trip to the free throw line in the denominator? The way I look at it, if Manny Camper goes 0 for 2 from the field and 4 for 8 from the line then that means he scored 4 points in 6 possessions so his PPS should really be 0.67. Using straight PPS he gets credit for an amazing 2.0 PPS. That is better than the guy that goes 4-6 from the field in those same six possessions and scored 8 points but only gets 1.50 PPS. Makes no sense to me. Similar thing drives me nuts with assists. If you throw the perfect pass and the guy draws the foul and makes his free throws then why don't you get an assist for that?
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 13, 2019 12:53:54 GMT -5
Monmouth & Quinny on paper seem to be the toughest match ups based up observations & of course the #'s...…………..but I also think that both Smithen & Camper can be quite the defensive approach on both Young & Kelly for QU, so we will have to see how that plays out this Sunday...………...and I still feel we let Rice's squad off the hook twice, had we made 1 simple FT at the end in Albany we win that game but our players at that point were exhausted, then in their place we are laying the wood on them but good but then we don't score for 8+ minutes at the end of the first half (which is not reflective of our offensive effectiveness) which did us in...……..……………… The 1st game Siena fouled half as much in more mins. It kept them within striking distance. Siena can certainly beat these teams on a given night. It's just that these teams create these challenges for Siena that make life more difficult. Saints can't foul these teams. And it would help Siena greatly if they had an out of the ordinary big FT night vs. these particular teams. Smithen driving more for us down the stretch run could help us accomplish this. Pickett and Fisher tend to avoid the contact more with jumpers and fadeaways....too many of which are in the midrange unfortunately. Elijah Burns both draws more fouls and shoots FTs better than Fisher (1.44 career PPS vs. Fisher's 1.197 this year). I'm hoping that next year, he steps up as a big key to Siena's increased offensive efficiency....even with potentially scoring less points per game than Fisher. Siena lost both games because Monmouth was able to make Pickett uncomfortable (averaging 5.5 turnovers per game). They are the only team that has been successful with frustrating Pickett so far this year. This is usually the time of year where freshman have been fully scouted and teams know how to attack them. Siena has won the rematches versus Fairfield, Manhattan and lost the rematch versus Monmouth. I'm interested to see how successful Iona is in disrupting Picketts game. (and, if they are, if any Saints step up)
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OneIndian
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Post by OneIndian on Feb 13, 2019 12:55:53 GMT -5
The team to beat is Iona, tonight! Look no further.....
You can compile all the analytics and analyze all you want but the fact remains in this conference just about anyone is capable of winning....nothing is a give me!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 12:59:11 GMT -5
For the record. Monmouth is 1.276/1.265 or +.011 in MAAC play. They are tops in MAAC play at getting to the FT line. Siena's low rate of fouling was put to the test and we fouled/failed. We couldn't keep their PPS low enough on D to beat them (66 pts on just 42 shots (1.57) last game). And then they beat us on possessions on top of that. We don't want to face either of these teams in the Tourney. These Saints will have to play their best games offensively and keep the fouling at a minimum. Other teams like Iona are dangerous for us too because of their offense but their defenses are so bad that we can make up for it on offense....but I'm not sure about Quinny and MU. They seem to have enough on both sides of the ball to beat us pretty consistently. Sadly, my money is on Quinny to win it all this year...because like us they don't foul...and in a head to head with Monmouth...that gives them enough of an advantage over them to win because they don't have our offensive deficiencies. We need a Smithen-esque explosion of PPS offense type game in the tourney to get by these guys. Maybe you can explain why PPS does not factor in a trip to the free throw line in the numerator? The way I look at it, if Manny Camper goes 0 for 2 from the field and 4 for 8 from the line then that means he scored 4 points in 6 possessions so his PPS should really be 0.67. Using straight PPS he gets credit for an amazing 2.0 PPS. That is better than the guy that goes 4-6 from the field in those same six possessions and scored 8 points but only gets 1.50 PPS. Makes no sense to me. Similar thing drives me nuts with assists. If you throw the perfect pass and the guy draws the foul and makes his free throws then why don't you get an assist for that? You're absolutely right and I've been so waiting for someone care about the numbers enough to pick up on that. Points Per Possession is the better indicator. However, those statistics aren't as readily available. However, you could use the ORtg and DRtg on Sports Reference...which is the estimated Points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. For Siena, that would look like this: Player ---------------- ORTG ------ DRTG ------ NET
Kadeem Smithen ------ 124.90 ------ 101.90 ------ 23.00 Kevin Degnan ---------- 111.70 ------ 102.90 ------ 8.80 Jalen Pickett ----------- 112.20 ------ 103.60 ------ 8.60 Evan Fisher ------------ 104.70 ------ 107.70 ------ (3.00) Manny Camper -------- 101.50 ------ 104.60 ------ (3.10) Sammy Friday --------- 103.60 ------ 111.10 ------ (7.50) Jimmy Ratliff ----------- 101.20 ------ 109.60 ------ (8.40) Sloan Seymour --------- 102.60 ------ 113.40 ------ (10.80) Georges Darwiche ------ 72.00 ------ 112.50 ------ (40.50) Denzel Tchougang ------ 60.70 ------ 109.80 ------ (49.10) Thomas Huerter Jr. ------ 57.60 ------ 106.70 ------ (49.10) Braedon Bayer ----------- 35.60 ------ 109.20 ------ (73.60)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:06:42 GMT -5
Just keep Kadeem on the floor.....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:08:49 GMT -5
Just keep Kadeem on the floor..... That's what I'm sayin'. He was +8 in this last year too...FWIW.
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