$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 13, 2019 13:13:10 GMT -5
Maybe you can explain why PPS does not factor in a trip to the free throw line in the numerator? The way I look at it, if Manny Camper goes 0 for 2 from the field and 4 for 8 from the line then that means he scored 4 points in 6 possessions so his PPS should really be 0.67. Using straight PPS he gets credit for an amazing 2.0 PPS. That is better than the guy that goes 4-6 from the field in those same six possessions and scored 8 points but only gets 1.50 PPS. Makes no sense to me. Similar thing drives me nuts with assists. If you throw the perfect pass and the guy draws the foul and makes his free throws then why don't you get an assist for that? You're absolutely right and I've been so waiting for someone care about the numbers enough to pick up on that. Points Per Possession is the better indicator. However, those statistics aren't as readily available. However, you could use the ORtg and DRtg on Sports Reference...which is the estimated Points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. For Siena, that would look like this: Player ---------------- ORTG ------ DRTG ------ NET
Kadeem Smithen ------ 124.90 ------ 101.90 ------ 23.00 Kevin Degnan ---------- 111.70 ------ 102.90 ------ 8.80 Jalen Pickett ----------- 112.20 ------ 103.60 ------ 8.60 Evan Fisher ------------ 104.70 ------ 107.70 ------ (3.00) Manny Camper -------- 101.50 ------ 104.60 ------ (3.10) Sammy Friday --------- 103.60 ------ 111.10 ------ (7.50) Jimmy Ratliff ----------- 101.20 ------ 109.60 ------ (8.40) Sloan Seymour --------- 102.60 ------ 113.40 ------ (10.80) Georges Darwiche ------ 72.00 ------ 112.50 ------ (40.50) Denzel Tchougang ------ 60.70 ------ 109.80 ------ (49.10) Thomas Huerter Jr. ------ 57.60 ------ 106.70 ------ (49.10) Braedon Bayer ----------- 35.60 ------ 109.20 ------ (73.60) Personally I feel like PER does a pretty good job although it always overrates bigs: Pickett - 23.7 Fisher - 20.7 Smithen - 16.5 Friday - 16.5 Degnan - 15.3 Camper - 14.1 Seymour - 10.2 Ratliff - 8.9 Huerter - 1.5 Darwiche - 0.1 Tchouchang - (-1.5) Bayer - (-6.5)
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Post by MTS on Feb 13, 2019 13:17:04 GMT -5
The team to beat is Iona, tonight! Look no further..... You can compile all the analytics and analyze all you want but the fact remains in this conference just about anyone is capable of winning....nothing is a give me! No question...Iona is dangerous they are capable of making 12 3's....have to clamp down to Ben Perez tonight (he heard us in New Ro). Crawford and McGill also very dangerous. Siena needs to shoot the ball well - we haven't done it in a while and eventually that will burn you. I expect Cluess to throw everything at Pickett. We need to adjust to their adjustments. Huge game tonight... if we can win it a little less pressure on Sunday's game.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:18:28 GMT -5
You're absolutely right and I've been so waiting for someone care about the numbers enough to pick up on that. Points Per Possession is the better indicator. However, those statistics aren't as readily available. However, you could use the ORtg and DRtg on Sports Reference...which is the estimated Points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. For Siena, that would look like this: Player ---------------- ORTG ------ DRTG ------ NET
Kadeem Smithen ------ 124.90 ------ 101.90 ------ 23.00 Kevin Degnan ---------- 111.70 ------ 102.90 ------ 8.80 Jalen Pickett ----------- 112.20 ------ 103.60 ------ 8.60 Evan Fisher ------------ 104.70 ------ 107.70 ------ (3.00) Manny Camper -------- 101.50 ------ 104.60 ------ (3.10) Sammy Friday --------- 103.60 ------ 111.10 ------ (7.50) Jimmy Ratliff ----------- 101.20 ------ 109.60 ------ (8.40) Sloan Seymour --------- 102.60 ------ 113.40 ------ (10.80) Georges Darwiche ------ 72.00 ------ 112.50 ------ (40.50) Denzel Tchougang ------ 60.70 ------ 109.80 ------ (49.10) Thomas Huerter Jr. ------ 57.60 ------ 106.70 ------ (49.10) Braedon Bayer ----------- 35.60 ------ 109.20 ------ (73.60) Personally I feel like PER does a pretty good job although it always overrates bigs: Pickett - 23.7 Fisher - 20.7 Smithen - 16.5 Friday - 16.5 Degnan - 15.3 Camper - 14.1 Seymour - 10.2 Ratliff - 8.9 Huerter - 1.5 Darwiche - 0.1 Tchouchang - (-1.5) Bayer - (-6.5) Yeah, I don't always feel totally comfortable with that...so I don't use it. Note: Elijah Burns is +7.1 for his career in the ORTG/DRTG differential as well....
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 13, 2019 13:22:36 GMT -5
Just keep Kadeem on the floor..... No doubt the way he's been playing, problem is for the first two thirds of the season he was not being aggressive enough on offense. Through the first Monmouth game he had 22 field goal attempts in 201 minutes. In the 200 minutes since he has 37 field goal attempts.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:27:54 GMT -5
Just keep Kadeem on the floor..... No doubt the way he's been playing, problem is for the first two thirds of the season he was not being aggressive enough on offense. Through the first Monmouth game he had 22 field goal attempts in 201 minutes. In the 200 minutes since he has 37 field goal attempts. Yeah, but they are damn efficient FGA's and, when the D is considered, it becomes very much a net positive as the numbers show. Darwiche was taking more shots but scoring less points while doing it. He really probably should have been playing all along...but he is now... so all is well.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 13, 2019 13:30:30 GMT -5
No doubt the way he's been playing, problem is for the first two thirds of the season he was not being aggressive enough on offense. Through the first Monmouth game he had 22 field goal attempts in 201 minutes. In the 200 minutes since he has 37 field goal attempts. Yeah, but they are damn efficient FGA's and, when the D is considered, it becomes very much a net positive as the numbers show. Darwiche was taking more shots but scoring less points while doing it. He really probably should have been playing all along...but he is now... so all is well. From a numbers standpoint, sure. From a mindset standpoint if it took having his minutes cut to get across what was expected of him then I'm thrilled with how it turned out.
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Post by goldsaint17 on Feb 13, 2019 13:36:42 GMT -5
Personally I feel like PER does a pretty good job although it always overrates bigs: Pickett - 23.7 Fisher - 20.7 Smithen - 16.5 Friday - 16.5 Degnan - 15.3 Camper - 14.1 Seymour - 10.2 Ratliff - 8.9 Huerter - 1.5 Darwiche - 0.1 Tchouchang - (-1.5) Bayer - (-6.5) Yeah, I don't always feel totally comfortable with that...so I don't use it. Note: Elijah Burns is +7.1 for his career in the ORTG/DRTG differential as well.... Box Plus/Minus is also useful: Pickett +4.5 Degnan +0.4 Smithen +0.4 Camper -3.4 Ratliff -4.1 Fisher -4.7 Seymour -5.5 Huerter -7.7 Friday -9.7 Darwiche -10.6 Bayer -12.4 Tchougang -14.4 Also think Win Shares per 40 is useful: Pickett 0.163 Smithen 0.142 Degnan 0.109 Fisher 0.109 Camper 0.086 Friday 0.085 Ratliff 0.053 Seymour 0.052 Huerter -0.022 Darwiche -0.039 Tchougang -0.059 Here's a link explaining the win share stat FWIW: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/ws.html
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:44:13 GMT -5
Yeah, but they are damn efficient FGA's and, when the D is considered, it becomes very much a net positive as the numbers show. Darwiche was taking more shots but scoring less points while doing it. He really probably should have been playing all along...but he is now... so all is well. From a numbers standpoint, sure. From a mindset standpoint if it took having his minutes cut to get across what was expected of him then I'm thrilled with how it turned out. Perhaps. What I think he needed most was just a chance and some encouragement. His game is such that it is tough for people to understand the value of it by simply looking at the points column. People see a kid like him who gives the ball up so much and they assume 'non-factor.' That's not really the case because he's always had the physical tools. He has a good handle, speed, athleticism, a nose for the ball, and he can shoot it. His defensive energy and ball control have always been there. Just not sure the coaches really took the time to really see how they could develop him...with guys like Wright and then Penn around who were more offensively aggressive.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2019 13:53:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't always feel totally comfortable with that...so I don't use it. Note: Elijah Burns is +7.1 for his career in the ORTG/DRTG differential as well.... Box Plus/Minus is also useful: Pickett +4.5 Degnan +0.4 Smithen +0.4 Camper -3.4 Ratliff -4.1 Fisher -4.7 Seymour -5.5 Huerter -7.7 Friday -9.7 Darwiche -10.6 Bayer -12.4 Tchougang -14.4 Also think Win Shares per 40 is useful: Pickett 0.163 Smithen 0.142 Degnan 0.109 Fisher 0.109 Camper 0.086 Friday 0.085 Ratliff 0.053 Seymour 0.052 Huerter -0.022 Darwiche -0.039 Tchougang -0.059 Here's a link explaining the win share stat FWIW: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/ws.htmlYes, I definitely like the +/-. Can't wait to replace some of Bayer, Huerter, and Tchougang's mins with Ratliff. That should result in another little upgrade down the stretch as long as he doesn't shoot overly bad.
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 13, 2019 14:36:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't always feel totally comfortable with that...so I don't use it. Note: Elijah Burns is +7.1 for his career in the ORTG/DRTG differential as well.... Box Plus/Minus is also useful: Pickett +4.5 Degnan +0.4 Smithen +0.4 Camper -3.4 Ratliff -4.1 Fisher -4.7 Seymour -5.5 Huerter -7.7 Friday -9.7 Darwiche -10.6 Bayer -12.4 Tchougang -14.4 Also think Win Shares per 40 is useful: Pickett 0.163 Smithen 0.142 Degnan 0.109 Fisher 0.109 Camper 0.086 Friday 0.085 Ratliff 0.053 Seymour 0.052 Huerter -0.022 Darwiche -0.039 Tchougang -0.059 Here's a link explaining the win share stat FWIW: www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/ws.htmlright before the analytics took off, the plus/minus is what we used on our hs coaching staff as another more definitive way to evaluate player performance, which then carried over when we had our AAU teams...………….of course now, like KK is showing, there are many more ways to measure individual & team performance...…….and for the first time, Siena is using this with this new coaching staff, JP's view of #'s is only when he went somewhere that got him 2 for 1 well drinks...……………..
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 13, 2019 14:44:07 GMT -5
The team to beat is Canisius. They hold a 4-0 record against the the other top 3 teams and also have 4 home games out of their last 6. Toughest game on paper is Monmouth on the road. Q looks a lot like Siena in that they have recently started winning the close games, game will come down to who controls the pace of play. Siena shoots better from the field and has really improved their defense. Q is better from 3 and gets to the line. Neither team is great on the boards and Siena takes care of the ball better and forces more turnovers despite fewer possesions per game. If Siena can keep the game in the 60's, they'll have a great shot of winning. I dont think we've heard the last from Rider, and think it's starts with them beating Monmouth this week. All that said, Iona is the 3 time defending champion playing in a make or break kind of game tonight. Win and they are back in the conversation, lose and they'll likely have to win 4 in March. strangely, Griffs have really struggled at home, they are only 3-6 (we are only 5-5 but have played way better teams)…………...yet they have 8 road wins, Siena has 7, easily the two best road teams in the league...……………………….Iona will be desperate, and they are actually 1-9 on the road this yr, let's hope they don't feel warm & cozy in Albany tonight...…….....…………..
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 13, 2019 14:48:01 GMT -5
The 1st game Siena fouled half as much in more mins. It kept them within striking distance. Siena can certainly beat these teams on a given night. It's just that these teams create these challenges for Siena that make life more difficult. Saints can't foul these teams. And it would help Siena greatly if they had an out of the ordinary big FT night vs. these particular teams. Smithen driving more for us down the stretch run could help us accomplish this. Pickett and Fisher tend to avoid the contact more with jumpers and fadeaways....too many of which are in the midrange unfortunately. Elijah Burns both draws more fouls and shoots FTs better than Fisher (1.44 career PPS vs. Fisher's 1.197 this year). I'm hoping that next year, he steps up as a big key to Siena's increased offensive efficiency....even with potentially scoring less points per game than Fisher. Siena lost both games because Monmouth was able to make Pickett uncomfortable (averaging 5.5 turnovers per game). They are the only team that has been successful with frustrating Pickett so far this year. This is usually the time of year where freshman have been fully scouted and teams know how to attack them. Siena has won the rematches versus Fairfield, Manhattan and lost the rematch versus Monmouth. I'm interested to see how successful Iona is in disrupting Picketts game. (and, if they are, if any Saints step up) that being said, most teams are making it more & more uncomfy for Pickett, and you can see his assist #'s have been down more so in the 2nd half of this season...……...but it really has been the inability of the "other" players on the roster to "pick up their play" when that happens (game @ Monmouth), although in our current streak for the most part those other players have, more prominently Smithen & Camper...……...
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 13, 2019 15:17:09 GMT -5
Siena lost both games because Monmouth was able to make Pickett uncomfortable (averaging 5.5 turnovers per game). They are the only team that has been successful with frustrating Pickett so far this year. This is usually the time of year where freshman have been fully scouted and teams know how to attack them. Siena has won the rematches versus Fairfield, Manhattan and lost the rematch versus Monmouth. I'm interested to see how successful Iona is in disrupting Picketts game. (and, if they are, if any Saints step up) that being said, most teams are making it more & more uncomfy for Pickett, and you can see his assist #'s have been down more so in the 2nd half of this season...……...but it really has been the inability of the "other" players on the roster to "pick up their play" when that happens (game @ Monmouth), although in our current streak for the most part those other players have, more prominently Smithen & Camper...……... Pickett's assists may be down but he hasn't turned the ball over much outstide of the two Monmouth games. All the attention he is getting is giving guys like Camper and Smithen room to operate/attack. He was visibly frustrated in both Monmouth games.
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Post by Tony on Feb 13, 2019 15:46:59 GMT -5
The team to beat is Canisius. They hold a 4-0 record against the the other top 3 teams and also have 4 home games out of their last 6. Toughest game on paper is Monmouth on the road. Q looks a lot like Siena in that they have recently started winning the close games, game will come down to who controls the pace of play. Siena shoots better from the field and has really improved their defense. Q is better from 3 and gets to the line. Neither team is great on the boards and Siena takes care of the ball better and forces more turnovers despite fewer possesions per game. If Siena can keep the game in the 60's, they'll have a great shot of winning. I dont think we've heard the last from Rider, and think it's starts with them beating Monmouth this week. All that said, Iona is the 3 time defending champion playing in a make or break kind of game tonight. Win and they are back in the conversation, lose and they'll likely have to win 4 in March. I agree with Canisius the team to beat. Also think something is going on "inside" Rider, if Baggett can figure it out I think Donks have most talented team. Monmouth might be 2nd most talented team, but have no confidence Rice can win it all, if he couldnt with team he had a few years ago dont see it now. Iona is 3 time defending champion so can't count them out. Siena and Quinny dark horses. Monmouth and Canisius two worst matchups for Siena
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 13, 2019 15:54:42 GMT -5
The team to beat is Canisius. They hold a 4-0 record against the the other top 3 teams and also have 4 home games out of their last 6. Toughest game on paper is Monmouth on the road. Q looks a lot like Siena in that they have recently started winning the close games, game will come down to who controls the pace of play. Siena shoots better from the field and has really improved their defense. Q is better from 3 and gets to the line. Neither team is great on the boards and Siena takes care of the ball better and forces more turnovers despite fewer possesions per game. If Siena can keep the game in the 60's, they'll have a great shot of winning. I dont think we've heard the last from Rider, and think it's starts with them beating Monmouth this week. All that said, Iona is the 3 time defending champion playing in a make or break kind of game tonight. Win and they are back in the conversation, lose and they'll likely have to win 4 in March. I agree with Canisius the team to beat. Also think something is going on "inside" Rider, if Baggett can figure it out I think Donks have most talented team. Monmouth might be 2nd most talented team, but have no confidence Rice can win it all, if he couldnt with team he had a few years ago dont see it now. Iona is 3 time defending champion so can't count them out. Siena and Quinny dark horses. Monmouth and Canisius two worst matchups for Siena Agree with everything except Monmouth. I think they are going to take a step back towards reality starting with the Rider game this week.
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