$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 22, 2017 11:12:25 GMT -5
While it would be nice for Siena to pull off this upset I'd rather beat Monmouth on March 5 or 6 that is the one people will remember. I'm more concerned we play well and have a believe we can pull off the win in March. Remember Giants-Patriots in 2007/08? Giants lost the regular season finale to the Patriots but played them to the wire. What happened when it really counted? I know that isn't the best analogy but Siena can get a lot out of Friday's game without a win. Trying to beat Monmouth twice in 10 days might be too much to ask. I just don't see beating Monmouth on March 5th as a realistic path to beating them. Only chance in my opinion is getting to the championship and packing 11,000 into the TUC including a huge showing from the students. Fans just won't show up enough in the semis to make a difference and way less chance of a letdown from Monmouth in that one than there could be this Friday. I'll put our chances of sweeping them Friday and March 6th at slim with our chances of losing on Friday and beating them March 5th at none.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 11:21:36 GMT -5
This Siena team can beat anyone in the league, especially themselves.
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OneIndian
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Post by OneIndian on Feb 22, 2017 11:36:20 GMT -5
In the MAAC: 4 road wins in a row 5 out of last 6 were road wins First 3 road losses in a row in the MAAC were by a combined total of 9 points Monmouth is not our Gonzaga. They are beatable. As Monmouth has done on a number of occasions this year, if they "don't" shoot lights out like they did against us in Albany and we are still up or within 4-6 points with 10 minutes left in the game, and we make our foul shots, we win the game. Have a feeling we are going to see a number of guys play well, but especially Marquis and Nico. Look you can spin numbers and toss around all the "ifs" you want to try and prove a point. Fact is our last 5 wins have come against teams with a combined .340 win pct with Iona being the only win vs a top tier team. Hawks out class us, it would take a flawless effort on our part and and off shooting outing on their part. Our chances our not nil but I'd say they are slim. In the tournament I'm more worried about getting by a Griffs St Pete's or Iona first before I even start thinking about Monmouth. Nothing's a given with this group! One at a time.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 22, 2017 11:41:01 GMT -5
This Siena team can beat anyone in the league, especially themselves. This I agree with.
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 22, 2017 12:06:59 GMT -5
In the MAAC: 4 road wins in a row 5 out of last 6 were road wins First 3 road losses in a row in the MAAC were by a combined total of 9 points Monmouth is not our Gonzaga. They are beatable. As Monmouth has done on a number of occasions this year, if they "don't" shoot lights out like they did against us in Albany and we are still up or within 4-6 points with 10 minutes left in the game, and we make our foul shots, we win the game. Have a feeling we are going to see a number of guys play well, but especially Marquis and Nico. Look you can spin numbers and toss around all the "ifs" you want to try and prove a point. Fact is our last 5 wins have come against teams combined .340 win pct with Iona being the only win vs a top tier team. Hawks out class us, it would take a flawless effort on our part and and off shooting outing on their part. Our chances our not nil but I'd say they are pretty slim. In the tournament I'm more worried about getting by a Griffs St Pete's or Iona first before I even start thinking about Monmouth. Nothing's a given with this group! without question, even the first round MAAC tourney game for Siena is going to be a potential BIOTCH, depending on where they eventually finish in the standings...........at that point, there is no season it just comes down to trying to win 1 game and then moving forward..............as the great Jim Valvano once said, all that you focus on in March is to "survive and advance".........never more true....................
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 22, 2017 12:08:36 GMT -5
This Siena team can beat anyone in the league, especially themselves. agreed, more so if we play the WRONG Defense, or just start chucking up 3's (hello Nico are you listening, EF also)...........and many times I really have to question the basketball IQ collectively of this group, not really high end, IMHO
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th24
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Post by th24 on Feb 22, 2017 15:09:13 GMT -5
sienasaints: "We have to stop them (Monmouth) form scoring early. They scored too much so we have to play some better defense." - Lavon Long "We want to go down there, play well and try to win" - Javion Ogunyemi
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 17:54:44 GMT -5
Almost looks like a 3 team race when you look at it this way.
Conference Only Points per shot.....NET:
2016-2017 Team --- Offense --- Defense --- Net SPU ---------- 1.286 --- 1.128 --- 0.158 Monmouth --- 1.325 --- 1.190 --- 0.135 Iona ---------- 1.356 --- 1.226 --- 0.131 CC ------------ 1.295 --- 1.377 ----0.082 Siena --------- 1.285 --- 1.216 --- 0.069
The one caveat I'd say with Siena is, because with this same team last year they had the best NET numbers of the bunch, they are just an enigma.
2015-2016 Team --- Offense --- Defense --- Net Siena --------- 1.346 --- 1.179 --- 0.167
This obviously doesn't take into consideration turnover margin or rebounding but I think it shows you where teams are at. Siena, for example, loses on turnover margin but gains back some on rebounding margin....whereas Monmouth perhaps gains on both fronts. Because Siena is less efficient on both sides of the ball than they were last year AND because Monmouth beats us in turnover margin...it's hard for Siena to beat these guys. In the MAAC they have a +4.22 turnover margin advantage vs. us and we only have a +2.00 rebounding margin on them. ...and they outrebounded us last game. So they are not only playing more efficient on a per shot basis than us this year, but they are also getting more shots up than us too.
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Papi
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Post by Papi on Feb 22, 2017 18:01:49 GMT -5
As KK posted Monmouth is 40-76 from 3 the last 3 games. If they continue to shoot that way Siena or anyone isn't beating them. Law of averages has to come into play, they are due for a off night. When it happens they probably lose.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 18:10:41 GMT -5
Because of all that stuff above, Siena needs to stop chasing.
They need to play a tight zone that clogs the paint...emphasizing our rebounding advantage...and directly attacks their lacking 2 pt offense.
Saints need to:
1.) Win the battle of the boards by a lot. 2.) Defend the 2. 3.) Avoid turnovers(especially those that lead to transition points)
Saints need to firmly win at least 2 out of these 3 facets to get the W: Rebounding, FG% differential, turnover margin. The last one is hard to win for us, so they have play to win the first 2...and just try not to lose the game with the 3rd.
The worst thing you can do is to completely give up the FG% differential fight by allowing them to go off from 2pt land....like they did in the last game.
They have three guys that can get off the 3 point shot like Nico..only they make it. You can't defend that. Take your medicine and stop the 2. Don't give up both.
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skipc
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Post by skipc on Feb 22, 2017 19:05:14 GMT -5
It was quite disturbing to see the number of turnovers(self- inflicted for the most part) in the Niagara game. That combined with the poor free throw shooting at crunch time are two areas that absolutely have to be cleaned up to have any chance at all. You can beat the Niagara’s with that but not the Monmouths and St. Peters. I agree with KK that we can’t defend man to man particularly off the dribble. Once we’re beat off the dribble, it usually results in a lay-up or free throws. Play a zone, know where the shooters are and make them work to get their three’s. No excuses for Monmouth this year- they are the Big 3 plus RR and Clarence of the league this year.
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Post by sienafanallyearlong2 on Feb 22, 2017 19:30:07 GMT -5
In Monmouths 14 league wins after their two losses, 8 of them have been by 12 points or less, with at least 5 of those being in single digits. They got beat by Canisus and Rider. They got blown out by Syracuse and North Carolina.
Why does everyone on this board think they are so unbeatable?
We match up good against these guys at every spot on the floor, including point guard.
We have weaknesses for sure, but when they are not shooting at a 50% (+) clip on 3's as we can design our defense not allow it, so do they.
I agree as far as our defense goes. Play zone but play a stretched zone with 3 perimeters and 2 low posts. Give up the mid range if you have to but don't give up open 3's off defensive help rotation.
Nico and Marquis combine for 36. Brett, JO, and Lavon combine for 38 more. Shivers and Richards combine for remaining 10.
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Post by Tony on Feb 23, 2017 6:12:48 GMT -5
The MAAC is a guard league- Monmouth has best Guards in conference, they have best player in conference, in Robinson - they have two other players that can beat you in Hornbeak and Seaborn. Hawks guards are vastly and I mean vastly better than Siena's. In short Monmouth is best team in MAAC- Saints are a 500 team- how often did Fran's teams lose to 500 teams or less-- not too often. Overall Monmouth has much more talent than Saints- doesn't mean Siena can't "upset" Hawks- but dont count on it- very long shot. To put it in perspective for you- we have as much chance of beating Monmouth as Marist does in beating Siena on Sunday. Doesn't matter what defense Jimmy plays- if Monmouth plays well Siena will get killed- if they play so-so, Saints still lose, if they play bad and Saints play best game of year they can beat Monmouth. Saints are not on same level as Monmouth.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 6:22:51 GMT -5
In Monmouths 14 league wins after their two losses, 8 of them have been by 12 points or less, with at least 5 of those being in single digits. They got beat by Canisus and Rider. They got blown out by Syracuse and North Carolina. Why does everyone on this board think they are so unbeatable? We match up good against these guys at every spot on the floor, including point guard. We have weaknesses for sure, but when they are not shooting at a 50% (+) clip on 3's as we can design our defense not allow it, so do they. I agree as far as our defense goes. Play zone but play a stretched zone with 3 perimeters and 2 low posts. Give up the mid range if you have to but don't give up open 3's off defensive help rotation. Nico and Marquis combine for 36. Brett, JO, and Lavon combine for 38 more. Shivers and Richards combine for remaining 10. You neglected the one area where we don't match up at all, and it's the most important one for this game and the tournament - the four suits on the bench; sorry Mark Thomas but our suits are just not sharp!
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olddave
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Post by olddave on Feb 23, 2017 7:03:23 GMT -5
If you want to beat Monmouth you want to beat them in the tourney. No way Siena beats them 2 of 3. They are to good and well coached. Can Siena beat them 1 of 3, definitely, but you want that win in the tourney the MAAC goes through Monmouth.
I along with everyone else want to see Siena play well possibly upset, but I want to see the upset in the tourney.
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