SaintMisbehavin
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Post by SaintMisbehavin on Feb 10, 2014 12:02:10 GMT -5
MAAC - The Race for 5th.xlsx (11.7 KB) I was curious to see what type of schedule each of the middle-of-the-pack MAAC teams had remaining to see who has the best chance at earning the 5th place spot and a 1st round bye (and you can debate whether or not Siena would have a better chance to advance further as a 6-seed vs. 5, but IMO you want to finish as high as possible & earn a bye) Attached are what each of the "mid-pack" teams have left on the schedule. with highlights of the league's tiered hierarchy (again, IMO) Rider has a nasty schedule to finish out the season; if they don't beat Siena at home on the 23rd they likely won't get that spot, either giving it up to Siena or Marist. Siena has to beat its lesser opponents (Fairfield, Monmouth) at home, and the head-to-head matchups vs. Rider and Marist are both huge (and both on the road). Best case, say they go 3-1 in that group of games, and they'd still have to steal one of three games from the remaining three "Top 4" match-ups. Siena's yet to beat a "Top 4" MAAC team, but was leading late in both of their "Top 4" home games. EDIT: I didn't include anything on the Top 3 or bottom 2 because A. I didn't have time to look that up, and B. I think those teams are fairly solidified in their current standing.
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Gaskan
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Post by Gaskan on Feb 10, 2014 13:52:32 GMT -5
Siena HAS to win AT Rider to have any shot at the 5th seed.
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Post by greenblood on Feb 10, 2014 14:09:20 GMT -5
yes, they do
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 14:23:02 GMT -5
Siena HAS to win AT Rider to have any shot at the 5th seed. Very tall order.
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SaintMisbehavin
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Post by SaintMisbehavin on Feb 10, 2014 14:46:39 GMT -5
Rider needs that game even more than Siena.
They have a very real chance of going 2-4 even if they do beat Siena. If Siena could go 5-2 (and obviously that's a very tall order, and beating Marist would be a must) they'd finish ahead of the Broncs.
If Siena can somehow win 3 of its next 4 before that Rider game (3 of 4 are home games) they would be sitting in a decent situation.
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Post by MTS on Feb 10, 2014 15:10:10 GMT -5
Just win tonight...one at a time. I'd like to see us go 4-3 in these final 7 regular season games...if that puts us 5th fine if not that's OK too.
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SIENA1971
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Post by SIENA1971 on Feb 11, 2014 10:37:39 GMT -5
www.nycbuckets.com/2014/02/tempo-free-maac-predicting-5th-seed/Templon excerpt below: I ran 10,000 simulations for the rest of the MAAC season because I wanted to know a team’s chances of earning one of the all important Top 5 seeds. Below are the percentage chances a team won’t have to play in the first round during the MAAC tournament. Chances of Earning a Top Five Seed: Iona: 100% Canisius: 99.9% Quinnipiac: 99.8% Manhattan: 99.6% Rider: 82.1% Siena: 10.4% Marist: 7.4% Saint Peter’s: 0.8% Monmouth: 0.1%
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Post by greenblood on Feb 11, 2014 11:13:29 GMT -5
I think 6th might be an actual advantage. Gets the frosh out on the floor for tourney game to shake out jitters. If they lose, it should really sting. They won't want to relive that feeling...
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Post by MTS on Feb 11, 2014 11:22:49 GMT -5
I think 6th might be an actual advantage. Gets the frosh out on the floor for tourney game to shake out jitters. If they lose, it should really sting. They won't want to relive that feeling... Yes I was thinking 6th might not be the worst thing either. First off it gets you a game on paper we should win (though Niagara and FF both pushed us to the brink at home) and then you get Friday off if you win. Play the late game on Saturday night (though not as late as the women are off Sat.) against the 3 seed. If you are the fifth seed even with a win against #4 you'd get the #1 on Sunday which will probably be Iona a tough match-up for us. I'd just like to see us finish .500 in the MAAC ...would really be a good accomplishment for this season - then we'll see how the standings fall. Realistically we aren't winning the MAAC tournament this year but when it comes back to the TUC next year we will make a major run at it!
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IndianSaint
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Post by IndianSaint on Feb 11, 2014 12:48:42 GMT -5
I think 6th might be an actual advantage. Gets the frosh out on the floor for tourney game to shake out jitters. If they lose, it should really sting. They won't want to relive that feeling... I'm liking 6th a lot more now than before. At 5th we'd probably play a Quinny, Manhattan or Canisius first game. Then into Iona. Not saying we can't beat them but like Grrrenblood said it'd be hopefully an easier game against 11 to help the guys get ready for next opponent. Of course. 11th will probable be FF and it might not be as easy as I'd hope. Still like our chances better against 11.
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gorvy
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Post by gorvy on Feb 11, 2014 13:00:01 GMT -5
I agree and brought this up origanLly but I would still like to see them finish 5th just so they can say they were better than half the teams. It seems improbable that they will beat rider given how bad they are on the road but they do have the talent to do it.
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SaintMisbehavin
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Post by SaintMisbehavin on Feb 11, 2014 13:18:38 GMT -5
I agree and brought this up origanLly but I would still like to see them finish 5th just so they can say they were better than half the teams. It seems improbable that they will beat rider given how bad they are on the road but they do have the talent to do it. I agree with this - I totally see the logic and merit of "getting a better road" and "at least having an opportunity to win a game" if you get the 6th seed, but really I want to see this team finish as strongly as possible. By my prognosis, the team will have to go 4-2 in these final 6 to grab the 5th seed anyways (ignoring Rider tiebreakers for now). If they're able to do that, I'd believe that they're ready for the MAAC tourney regardless of who they have to play first.
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mike
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Post by mike on Feb 11, 2014 13:32:27 GMT -5
The games @ Rider & @ Marist are pretty much must wins for 5th place. Need the head-to-head tiebreakers on our side. 10-10 (beat Monmouth @ home) would likely do it then.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 11, 2014 13:41:15 GMT -5
Why is everyone so scared of Canisius at home? That is a very winnable game.
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Post by MTS on Feb 11, 2014 13:47:10 GMT -5
Why is everyone so scared of Canisius at home? That is a very winnable game. Probably because we haven't beaten a top 4 team this year... I think both Canisius and Manhattan games at home are both very winnable. I think we will win one of them. It's not like we can't compete against the top MAAC teams at home. We had Quinnipiac beat before losing in OT and gave Iona all they wanted (the top team in the league). Canisius is very good but if you don't allow Billy Baron to go crazy and keep their others guys in check you can beat them.
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