Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Oct 2, 2017 9:35:57 GMT -5
You guys get way to wrapped up in single stats. Siena average 14 turnovers per game last year 8th in the MAAC. Sounds horrible, right? But the difference between 8th and 2nd was 2 turnovers per game. (Iona)
Interestingly enough, Siena averaged 40.6 rebounds per game compared to Iona's 38.5 ... hmmm, do the math. Siena gave up on 2 more possession per game due to turnovers but they created 2 additional possesions via rebounding. They also blocked 1 more shot per game than Iona. Iona did force 1 more steal per game then Siena.
My point, stats are a stew ... typically no one stat is going to make or break a team. There are certainly stats that stand out (Free Throw % in a close loss for example) Good teams are able to play to their strengths and lessen the impact of their weaknesses.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 9:45:24 GMT -5
You guys get way to wrapped up in single stats. Siena average 14 turnovers per game last year 8th in the MAAC. Sounds horrible, right? But the difference between 8th and 2nd was 2 turnovers per game. (Iona) Interestingly enough, Siena averaged 40.6 rebounds per game compared to Iona's 38.5 ... hmmm, do the math. Siena gave up on 2 more possession per game due to turnovers but they created 2 additional possesions via rebounding. They also blocked 1 more shot per game than Iona. Iona did force 1 more steal per game then Siena. My point, stats are a stew ... typically no one stat is going to make or break a team. There are certainly stats that stand out (Free Throw % in a close loss for example) Good teams are able to play to their strengths and lessen the impact of their weaknesses. Rebounds per game and turnovers per game at the team level don't mean anything until you take into account either tempo or margins or both...and isolate it to MAAC play only. Siena was +6.7 in rebounding margin last year in MAAC play and -2.35 in turnover margin. That would net them +4.35 more shots than their average MAAC opposition. The previous year it was +9.6 rebs and -3.85 TOs for a +5.75 shots. static.maacsports.com/custompages/stats/2016-17/mbball/CONFONLY.HTMhttp://maacconf_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/stats/2015-16/mbball/CONFONLY.HTM Siena's rebounding MADE Siena. If Siena loses its rebounding advantage, they better make up for it somewhere else....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 10:01:43 GMT -5
For comparison sake,
Monmouth was +2.8 rebounding and + 2.1 Turnover margin= +4.9 That seems close to Siena on possessions but when you then take defensive FG% into play...that's where they smoked Siena.
That's why Monmouth was so much better than Siena on paper.
Iona was actually -0.2 on rebounding and +0.45 on turnover margin. Their tempo added to the rebound totals but they weren't outrebounding the MAAC.
They won largely just on ridiculous Points Per Shot numbers combined with pace of play. They just out shoot you to death. 1.34 PPS in MAAC play.
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Post by goldsaint17 on Oct 2, 2017 10:57:53 GMT -5
I don't think we're in a position at this point to declare that we *SHOULD* win any game. Holy Cross, Lehigh and Bucknell have been decent. Siena has been mediocre or poor. Saying *SHOULD* is a bit too cocky for a team that *SHOULD* stink. I'm hoping that Oduro can replace Brett and Javion. I'm hoping Ahsante and Nico stay healthy. I'm hoping Penn can limit TOs. We're going to need most of the guys from last year to step up considerably and most/all of the new guys to hit the ground running. We'll probably get 50% of what we really need and it probably won't come until well into MAAC play. This *COULD* be a surprise team come March but it would be stunning if the record is much beyond PIG status. At this point all we can do is hope for the best. Obviously, my saying we should win is dependent on the team being at a certain level. Obviously things could go south and we could struggle mightily. But if we go on the assumption we are a midpack level MAAC team, we should be able to beat Lehigh (loses 2 best players from a 3rd place Patriot League team) and Holy Cross (loses 2 best players from a 5th place Patriot League team) as those teams will likely be picked in the middle of the pack or lower of a worse league. We are going to lose to Bucknell, they will be a top 50 team this season. We also probably should beat 2 teams that will be picked in the middle or bottom of the NEC in Robert Morris & Bryant. If you want to go into the season assuming we will suck just because we have 4 starters graduating, that’s fine. I’ll look at the fact that we have the most talented player in the MAAC, a guy who every person inside the program I’ve spoken to says will make huge strides in Shivers, and a group of freshmen that looked good on an international trip. I’ll work on the assumption we are a 4-7th place MAAC team, not a 8-11th place one. If that’s the level we are at, we should be midpack Patriot and NEC teams, and should also be able to beat mid-to-upper tier teams in other mid-major leagues at home (Hofstra, Albany as perfect examples).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 11:37:06 GMT -5
Iona's rebounding could fall after losing JW...and so will Monmouth's turnover margin without Robinson and Hornbeak's PG skills and steals...
Siena is likely to lose PPS and rebounding post LL, JO, and BB. The perimeter play was bad on both sides last year, so that's more of an opportunity.
So they need to play better D, take better care of the ball, and try to mitigate the rebounding margin losses as much as possible...in order to offset the shots lost by the rebounding as well as the efficiency lost with the 2pt offense.
They could make more threes (to keep PPS level up) and they could improve their turnover margin cause of the 4 guard lineup (to mitigate shot losses). Whatever it is, we know they need to do something to offset those frontcourt losses.
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Post by Tony on Oct 2, 2017 15:20:25 GMT -5
If we are talking about concerns- mine is defense, first of all we are playing a lot of inexperienced players, that doesn’t bode well for defense, secondly other than Nico we are average at best and in most cases below average athletically at every position on floor. Forget shot blocking, Forget offensive rebounding this year- the team is going to “hustle “ back on defense after a shot goes up to make up for their lack of foot speed. If they go for offensive rebounds quicker teams will run us off floor. Because of our lack of foot speed and athletic ability this team will have to play a lot of zone- so let’s hope the young guys are good zone players. We also have to negate the defense ( or lack thereof ) by being a very efficient offensive team ( similar to what Hewitt did back in the day)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 15:53:16 GMT -5
If we are talking about concerns- mine is defense, first of all we are playing a lot of inexperienced players, that doesn’t bode well for defense, secondly other than Nico we are average at best and in most cases below average athletically at every position on floor. Forget shot blocking, Forget offensive rebounding this year- the team is going to “hustle “ back on defense after a shot goes up to make up for their lack of foot speed. If they go for offensive rebounds quicker teams will run us off floor. Because of our lack of foot speed and athletic ability this team will have to play a lot of zone- so let’s hope the young guys are good zone players. We also have to negate the defense ( or lack thereof ) by being a very efficient offensive team ( similar to what Hewitt did back in the day) I don't think most individual players have any real glaring defensive issues. And I think this team has speed. Fisher, Degnan, and Richard I'll concede have some defensive issues. Others, I think are fine. Horn looks ok at SG and might even have some quick hands there. Heurter also looks fine to me on D at PF in this league. If this team is to be 'scrappy', he would seem to me to be a poster boy for that. The rest would seem to have the physical abilities to defend their positions. So, I think there is at least HOPE for a good defense. I don't agree with your foot speed hypothesis. Now, Interior D and shotblocking? That's a legit concern to me. However, SPU only blocked 2.8 per game last year (9th in MAAC) and they had the 36th ranked D in the nation and they were the smallest team in the MAAC...so it's possible to have a good D without it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 16:06:31 GMT -5
If Oduro can block 40 or so, this team should have over 100 blocks.
Clareth should get 20+. So that's a good start.
They're not going to block 150-200 shots but maybe, just maybe, the perimeter D can be such that they force bad shots.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Oct 2, 2017 16:21:02 GMT -5
If we are talking about concerns- mine is defense, first of all we are playing a lot of inexperienced players, that doesn’t bode well for defense, secondly other than Nico we are average at best and in most cases below average athletically at every position on floor. Forget shot blocking, Forget offensive rebounding this year- the team is going to “hustle “ back on defense after a shot goes up to make up for their lack of foot speed. If they go for offensive rebounds quicker teams will run us off floor. Because of our lack of foot speed and athletic ability this team will have to play a lot of zone- so let’s hope the young guys are good zone players. We also have to negate the defense ( or lack thereof ) by being a very efficient offensive team ( similar to what Hewitt did back in the day) I don't think most individual players have any real glaring defensive issues. And I think this team has speed. Fisher, Degnan, and Richard I'll concede have some defensive issues. Others, I think are fine. Horn looks ok at SG and might even have some quick hands there. Heurter also looks fine to me on D at PF in this league. If this team is to be 'scrappy', he would seem to me to be a poster boy for that. The rest would seem to have the physical abilities to defend their positions. So, I think there is at least HOPE for a good defense. I don't agree with your foot speed hypothesis. Now, Interior D and shotblocking? That's a legit concern to me. However, SPU only blocked 2.8 per game last year (9th in MAAC) and they had the 36th ranked D in the nation and they were the smallest team in the MAAC...so it's possible to have a good D without it. I got the feeling from a few of the interviews over the Canada trip that Richard has realized that his ticket to playing time is going to require busting his butt on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the minutes that he winds up a much better defender.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 16:24:18 GMT -5
I don't think most individual players have any real glaring defensive issues. And I think this team has speed. Fisher, Degnan, and Richard I'll concede have some defensive issues. Others, I think are fine. Horn looks ok at SG and might even have some quick hands there. Heurter also looks fine to me on D at PF in this league. If this team is to be 'scrappy', he would seem to me to be a poster boy for that. The rest would seem to have the physical abilities to defend their positions. So, I think there is at least HOPE for a good defense. I don't agree with your foot speed hypothesis. Now, Interior D and shotblocking? That's a legit concern to me. However, SPU only blocked 2.8 per game last year (9th in MAAC) and they had the 36th ranked D in the nation and they were the smallest team in the MAAC...so it's possible to have a good D without it. I got the feeling from a few of the interviews over the Canada trip that Richard has realized that his ticket to playing time is going to require busting his butt on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the minutes that he winds up a much better defender. He'd probably have to have grown 3 inches this summer..
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Post by goldsaint17 on Oct 2, 2017 16:59:20 GMT -5
I don’t think we’ll be a great defensive team. Like Tony said the only guy in our top 6 who is likely a plus on ball defender is Nico and he’s only a plus defender if healthy and focused. That said I think we can be a pretty solid team defense. Shivers is an outstanding team defender, makes a ton of plays and has a nose for the ball. Penn has active hands and posted a good number of steals in prep ball (also had 3 in 3 games during the Canada trip). Smithen (who I hope is our other bench rotation guard with Horn) is excellent defensively. The key will be good help defense and solid interior rotations by Prince (who will need to stay out of foul trouble) and Fisher.
Honestly, I think the more I think about it the more I believe the best strategy might be go not take risks. Nico loves to cheat for steals so he can go get a breakaway dunk, but every time he misses it’s a 5 on 4 and a bucket. Obviously if our guards get out in the open floor, get them going. But if we are more conservative, we can minimize giving away easy buckets, make them execute well against our halfcourt defense and rely on our offense to be efficient (which I believe we can be, especially if Nico goes to the rim more).
I also think we will actually still remain an average if not better rebounding team in the MAAC. We outrebounded our opponent in all 3 games in Canada, and did that without guys like Nico and Shivers who are bigger guards. On paper this shouldn’t be too outstanding a rebounding team, but there’s no team we should be definitively worse on the glass than other than Monmouth. Manhattan has the bigs to be good but they haven’t been a good rebounding team under Masiello since the Rhamel Brown era. Not falling too far in that regard is huge for our chances. Obviously we won’t be as good as we were, but we might be able to make up for that with better shooting (though Degnan’s struggles won’t help as he won’t play as much as most thought) and more efficient offense.
The more I look, the more I think we will be pretty average in just about every aspect this year in comparison to the rest of the MAAC. The one area we should have an advantage is guard play, especially late in games. We have 3 guys in Horn, Shivers, and of course Nico who can get you a bucket whenever. That will be huge because my guess is we’ll be in a lot of close games. I think there will be about 6 MAAC games for us this year that come down to the final minute or so. The difference between 6-12 and 12-6 will be how we manage in those close games. 8 wins or above gives you a chance at the bye likely dependent on tiebreakers, 10 probably seals it.
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rickyp
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Post by rickyp on Oct 2, 2017 17:15:31 GMT -5
I don't get the average athletic skills and slow foot speed.I've seen and watched all of these guards they can handle there positions. If anything the coaches think Nico could be one of the best defenders,if he decides he wants too be.I don't see us playing zone if that was the case he would have done it in Canada a lot.Plus these players hate zone.The coaches like there guards playing man and they fill they can handle it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 17:36:28 GMT -5
Last year, Saints had the 206th ranked D. They were just 262nd in forcing TOs and 204th in 2pt defense...in spite of JO.
It was just the 4th time in 13 years a Patsos team has had a 2pt D ranked worse than 200. Teams also shot very well from the FT line against us.
Given that Nico was out and/or not healthy much of last year, I think the perimeter D will be better this year than last. Remember, also while Lavon was tough, he wasn't quick for a SF. We lose a lot with him gone but we do gain speed and shooting on the perimeter.
If JP can find a way to deter teams inside, having better than the 206th ranked D isn't outlandish if he does his job.
If he chooses to go small more and they manage to keep the turnovers down, that also would fix our previously worst defensive problem: points off turnovers.
It's all up in the air with this team right now.
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bison137
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Post by bison137 on Oct 2, 2017 22:06:55 GMT -5
I don't think we're in a position at this point to declare that we *SHOULD* win any game. Holy Cross, Lehigh and Bucknell have been decent. Siena has been mediocre or poor. Saying *SHOULD* is a bit too cocky for a team that *SHOULD* stink. I'm hoping that Oduro can replace Brett and Javion. I'm hoping Ahsante and Nico stay healthy. I'm hoping Penn can limit TOs. We're going to need most of the guys from last year to step up considerably and most/all of the new guys to hit the ground running. We'll probably get 50% of what we really need and it probably won't come until well into MAAC play. This *COULD* be a surprise team come March but it would be stunning if the record is much beyond PIG status. At this point all we can do is hope for the best. Obviously, my saying we should win is dependent on the team being at a certain level. Obviously things could go south and we could struggle mightily. But if we go on the assumption we are a midpack level MAAC team, we should be able to beat Lehigh (loses 2 best players from a 3rd place Patriot League team) and Holy Cross (loses 2 best players from a 5th place Patriot League team) as those teams will likely be picked in the middle of the pack or lower of a worse league. We are going to lose to Bucknell, they will be a top 50 team this season. A couple things on Lehigh. They will likely be picked for 4th in Patriot league. Lost their best player (Kempton), but their second best player, PG Kahron Ross, returns. He has made some level of All-PL three consecutive years. They also graduated a pretty good SG, but what has really hurt them is that two players (Alston and Holba), both of whom would have been key starters this year, transferred out. Also two young centers, who missed last year with injuries, are still hurt and won't play early in the year. They do add a potentially-good transfer and a juco transfer who both should be rotation players. Given the game is in Bethlehem, it figures to be close - but LU's coach, Brett Reed, is an awful game coach. As for Holy Cross, they also graduated their top player, Malachi Alexander, and return their second best, Karl Charles. But they also graduated three others of their top six - leaving them with only two experienced players - and will be very reliant on players from their six-man incoming freshman class. Will be picked for 7th or 8th in the PL. In the TUC, Siena will certainly be a favorite.
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Post by Tony on Oct 3, 2017 4:16:45 GMT -5
We can agree to disagree on Saints speed and athleticism. I’m not convinced Shivers is faster than Lavon, and he is 3 inches shorter. Lavon is going to be hard to replace. If Shivers makes the sophomore jump he can replace his scoring, but Lavon was a Swiss army knife, he also rebounded, handled the ball vs the press, shot 52% from floor, 76 % from line. In addition to freshmen making impact, Shivers is a key, he has to be reliable 2nd option on offense
The reason why I think the Lehigh game will be tough. Saints are young and inexperienced for most part. It usually takes freshmen time to learn how to win on the road. It’s certainly a game Saints can win, but Saints will probably be a slight dog in game
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