Post by hoopsforever on Jan 29, 2017 14:27:58 GMT -5
We are a bit over the halfway mark of the MAAC regular season, and what looked early to be a season of league parity, has now at just over the halfway point, ended up with some separation of teams. We all hear, "It's all about three days in March". Well, for some teams it is, but for others it is a real longshot. For others, it is four days in March, and four upsets - a nearly impossible task. Here's what I see at this point and I would urge others to chime in with your thoughts.
The Clear Cut Favorite - Monmouth - Give them a 60% chance of advancing to the Dance - After somewhat of a rocky start in the MAAC, this Justin Robinson led squad has distanced itself from the rest of the field.
The Contenders - St. Peters and Iona - Give this group a 30% chance of making it to Monday night and upsetting Monmouth - St. Peters has the defense that on a given night can give any team fits, and with an improved offense, they can be a handful. Iona shot lights out against Siena and can be a dangerous side, but can they play enough defense for three straight games to advance?
The Longshots- Siena, Canisius, Rider, and Quinnipiac Probably one team out of this group makes it to the semi-finals, and possibly two make in into the semis, but winning the whole thing? Give them a 10% chance of doing that. I was hopeful Siena had settled their problems, and were ready to advance into the group of contenders, but the stinker against Iona made me rethink this. Siena still has the best possibility of this group of advancing to the contender group before tournament time. Canisius can't rebound or defend well enough over three days to make it to Monday night. Rider is way too inconsistent, and this physical team lacks the focus to advance. Quinnipiac is probably the weakest of this quartet.
The Also Rans- Niagara, Fairfield, Marist, and Manhattan - Give all the teams in this group a 0% chance of winning the tournament. There is no way that any of these squads can pull together four upsets in four days in March to advance and dance. However, any of the four is capable of pulling off an upset, maybe two upsets, but winning the tournament- I just see the top three teams as too strong for any of these teams to make it this year.
The Clear Cut Favorite - Monmouth - Give them a 60% chance of advancing to the Dance - After somewhat of a rocky start in the MAAC, this Justin Robinson led squad has distanced itself from the rest of the field.
The Contenders - St. Peters and Iona - Give this group a 30% chance of making it to Monday night and upsetting Monmouth - St. Peters has the defense that on a given night can give any team fits, and with an improved offense, they can be a handful. Iona shot lights out against Siena and can be a dangerous side, but can they play enough defense for three straight games to advance?
The Longshots- Siena, Canisius, Rider, and Quinnipiac Probably one team out of this group makes it to the semi-finals, and possibly two make in into the semis, but winning the whole thing? Give them a 10% chance of doing that. I was hopeful Siena had settled their problems, and were ready to advance into the group of contenders, but the stinker against Iona made me rethink this. Siena still has the best possibility of this group of advancing to the contender group before tournament time. Canisius can't rebound or defend well enough over three days to make it to Monday night. Rider is way too inconsistent, and this physical team lacks the focus to advance. Quinnipiac is probably the weakest of this quartet.
The Also Rans- Niagara, Fairfield, Marist, and Manhattan - Give all the teams in this group a 0% chance of winning the tournament. There is no way that any of these squads can pull together four upsets in four days in March to advance and dance. However, any of the four is capable of pulling off an upset, maybe two upsets, but winning the tournament- I just see the top three teams as too strong for any of these teams to make it this year.
