What's the point spread......

[hoopjunkie]

....for our game vs. Canisius??

[hockeyguy]

HJ, I don't believe a line is set more than 48 hrs in advance of the game, could be wrong though.

[Tony]

I'll guess we open up a 4 or 5 point dog

[hoopjunkie]

Mar 3, 2014 18:50:40 GMT -5 hockeyguy said:

HJ, I don't believe a line is set more than 48 hrs in advance of the game, could be wrong though.

I know, but there's a formula out there with RPI rankings that usually lets you determine what the spread should be.

And I'm with you Tony, I'm guessing 5.

[hockeyguy]

Once again, "the point spread" is a wagering tool designed to attract equal amounts of wagers on both sides os a proposition and has only a passing connection with the actual match-up. Too much money bet "against" Siena, no problem, give them another point or two and try to balance the wagering. Too little against the opponent, reduce the points until the money "evens out". The spread is nothing more than what people who are willing to risk a buck think one way or the other and does not neccesarily represent fundamental basketball knowledge.

[hoopjunkie]

I'm well aware what a spoint spread is, and how it works BUT with all the RPI, SOS etc... crap out there, it's easy, for those that care enough, to figure out a legit spread in a match-up of any two teams BEFORE Vegas does.

I've seen this, on this board, before, and was curious if anyone could apply those numbers and give us a spread.

[CellarRat]

Mar 4, 2014 1:30:49 GMT -5 hockeyguy said:

Once again, "the point spread" is a wagering tool designed to attract equal amounts of wagers on both sides os a proposition and has only a passing connection with the actual match-up. Too much money bet "against" Siena, no problem, give them another point or two and try to balance the wagering. Too little against the opponent, reduce the points until the money "evens out". The spread is nothing more than what people who are willing to risk a buck think one way or the other and does not neccesarily represent fundamental basketball knowledge.

This is true, but if the spread is not accurate doesn't that encourage the money to go in one direction thereby causing a correction in Vegas. I'm not saying it's perfect, and I'm not a gambler, but the spreads are for the most part pretty good.

I think you have to understand why the money is going in one direction. It could be a larger fan base, based on a favorite color or city, etc.,basically people betting subjectively. But I have to think that most people betting are trying to make some money and will bet accordingly.

[$cott]

3.8 on the Sagarin, figure Siena is coming in hot and has a slight home court edge and the spread should be 3.

RPI Forecast has us with a 64% chance of losing this game, 25% chance of winning and losing Sunday, 7.4% chance of losing the finals, and 3.5% chance of winning it all.

[SIENA1971]

More stats:

kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/maac_log51

[MTS]

Mar 5, 2014 11:59:49 GMT -5 $cott said:

3.8 on the Sagarin, figure Siena is coming in hot and has a slight home court edge and the spread should be 3.

RPI Forecast has us with a 64% chance of losing this game, 25% chance of winning and losing Sunday, 7.4% chance of losing the finals, and 3.5% chance of winning it all.

Dare to dream if Siena wins the MAAC tournament we will be 18-16 with an RPI of 128 (according to RPI Forecast). Does that get us sent to Dayton or not? I guess it would depend on upsets in other tournaments but I'd say we would avoid Dayton. It's usually reserved for the bottom tier leagues and the MAAC is 16 in the RPI this year.

Siena becomes the first #16 to beat a #1 as they take down Wichita State in the Round of 64 as a national audience watches on CBS. No, I am NOT smoking pot as I type this!

[$cott]

Mar 5, 2014 14:29:01 GMT -5 MTS said:

Mar 5, 2014 11:59:49 GMT -5 $cott said:

3.8 on the Sagarin, figure Siena is coming in hot and has a slight home court edge and the spread should be 3.

RPI Forecast has us with a 64% chance of losing this game, 25% chance of winning and losing Sunday, 7.4% chance of losing the finals, and 3.5% chance of winning it all.

Dare to dream if Siena wins the MAAC tournament we will be 18-16 with an RPI of 128 (according to RPI Forecast). Does that get us sent to Dayton or not? I guess it would depend on upsets in other tournaments but I'd say we would avoid Dayton. It's usually reserved for the bottom tier leagues and the MAAC is 16 in the RPI this year.

Siena becomes the first #16 to beat a #1 as they take down Wichita State in the Round of 64 as a national audience watches on CBS. No, I am NOT smoking pot as I type this!

SWAC and Big South winners are locks for the play in. So would need a combination of two mild upsets in the Big Sky/Southern/Northeast/MEAC or big upsets in the other mid major conferences to avoid Dayton.

[hockeyguy]

www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/story.cfm/story/1519441

Siena a 15-1 pick to win it all. No point spread yet for tomorrow's game.

[greenblood]

While I love optimism, first we have to stop Baron and Co.

[billmurray]

Mar 5, 2014 14:50:47 GMT -5 $cott said:

Mar 5, 2014 14:29:01 GMT -5 MTS said:

Dare to dream if Siena wins the MAAC tournament we will be 18-16 with an RPI of 128 (according to RPI Forecast). Does that get us sent to Dayton or not? I guess it would depend on upsets in other tournaments but I'd say we would avoid Dayton. It's usually reserved for the bottom tier leagues and the MAAC is 16 in the RPI this year.

Siena becomes the first #16 to beat a #1 as they take down Wichita State in the Round of 64 as a national audience watches on CBS. No, I am NOT smoking pot as I type this!

SWAC and Big South winners are locks for the play in. So would need a combination of two mild upsets in the Big Sky/Southern/Northeast/MEAC or big upsets in the other mid major conferences to avoid Dayton.

The NCAA looks to avoid putting the lowest leagues in the PIG every year. As a result the SWAC et.al., get a pass some years and statistically better representatives from higher rated leagues are put in the PIG.