SaintMisbehavin
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Post by SaintMisbehavin on Mar 10, 2020 15:28:09 GMT -5
Public health professional here... This disease is not a "hoax". The regular flu has a mortality rate of about 0.02%. COVID-19 has a mortality rate around 3.4%, which sky rockets enormously for individuals over the age of 60. The mechanism of spread is not fully understood but the incubation period appears to be alarmingly long. What does this mean? It means that if you get sick, you could unknowingly spread the disease everywhere you go. Which means that older adults and immuno compromised individuals could contract the disease from you and be at a high risk of mortality. So, if you want to make the argument that this is a situation of individual risk, the comparison is actually this: attend your crowded event, THEN voluntarily self-quarantine for 14 days. Otherwise, you have greatly increased the risk of unknowingly spreading this disease to the most vulnerable members of our population. I desperately hope that this is an overreaction and that the virus does not continue to spread in the US. I would MUCH rather have that argument than have done too little too late. Preventive measures have to be aggressive to stand any chance of actually being effective. A sincere thank you for adding some needed accurate perspective to this thread. I know I made a joke, but this isn't anything to be flippant about.
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dacks
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Post by dacks on Mar 10, 2020 15:31:58 GMT -5
Public health professional here... This disease is not a "hoax". The regular flu has a mortality rate of about 0.02%. COVID-19 has a mortality rate around 3.4%, which sky rockets enormously for individuals over the age of 60. The mechanism of spread is not fully understood but the incubation period appears to be alarmingly long. What does this mean? It means that if you get sick, you could unknowingly spread the disease everywhere you go. Which means that older adults and immuno compromised individuals could contract the disease from you and be at a high risk of mortality. So, if you want to make the argument that this is a situation of individual risk, the comparison is actually this: attend your crowded event, THEN voluntarily self-quarantine for 14 days. Otherwise, you have greatly increased the risk of unknowingly spreading this disease to the most vulnerable members of our population. I desperately hope that this is an overreaction and that the virus does not continue to spread in the US. I would MUCH rather have that argument than have done too little too late. Preventive measures have to be aggressive to stand any chance of actually being effective. Is it true that the CDC was directing health professionals not to test for COVID-19 if people already had the flu? I am not a direct health care provider, so I am not positive on this, but I have heard lots of reports around testing issues where initial tests were being rationed. My educated guess is that in an effort to use tests most efficiently they ruled out individuals who were already known to have the flu since their symptoms were likely from this. To be clear, availability of tests has greatly improved so this does not appear to be an issue anymore.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Mar 10, 2020 15:32:06 GMT -5
I’m very concerned, I’m not so sure this is hysteria. Why are countries like Italy shutting down. This is serious, I don’t care what people say, I just watch what people do. This thing is everywhere dude. I bet most of us have already had it this winter. The only difference is we're testing for it now. It may be a little worse than the flu, and be more dangerous to the elderly and sick but it's likely well, well passed the point of containment. Also, I heard that the CDC doesn't test for it if you already have the flu. I don't know why. Does that mean that you can't have 2 diseases at once? Makes no sense and likely means more missed cases even on top of the ones that are missed because people don't go the hospital for it. Also, Italians are weird and often think differently. It's a different culture there. They are extremely bureaucratic and reactionary by nature from my experience at work. Can't totally go by them. My ex GF is also an Italian who is dealing with the red zone. She gives me updates whether I want them or not and doesn't really get why they're doing it either. You're the numbers guy ... it's got a 2% mortality rate. You really sure that we've all had it? You can scoff at what Italy is doing, but 630 deaths and 800 more in serious/critical condition is certainly concerning. I get that the hype is through the roof and I am no germaphobe but still, this has a chance to be a significant medical event. I would hate for the NCAA tournament to not happen. I would hate even more for the NCAA tournament to go forward and it negatively affect the health of the student athletes, school officials, fans, workers at the venues etc. If the NCAA does their due diligence and are comfortable that the events can move forward ... awesome.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Mar 10, 2020 15:33:54 GMT -5
This thing is everywhere dude. I bet most of us have already had it this winter. The only difference is we're testing for it now. It may be a little worse than the flu, and be more dangerous to the elderly and sick but it's likely well, well passed the point of containment. Also, I heard that the CDC doesn't test for it if you already have the flu. I don't know why. Does that mean that you can't have 2 diseases at once? Makes no sense and likely means more missed cases even on top of the ones that are missed because people don't go the hospital for it. Also, Italians are weird and often think differently. It's a different culture there. They are extremely bureaucratic and reactionary by nature from my experience at work. Can't totally go by them. My ex GF is also an Italian who is dealing with the red zone. She gives me updates whether I want them or not and doesn't really get why they're doing it either. You're the numbers guy ... it's got a 2% mortality rate. You really sure that we've all had it? You can scoff at what Italy is doing, but 630 deaths and 800 more in serious/critical condition is certainly concerning. I get that the hype is through the roof and I am no germaphobe but still, this has a chance to be a significant medical event. I would hate for the NCAA tournament to not happen. I would hate even more for the NCAA tournament to go forward and it negatively affect the health of the student athletes, school officials, fans, workers at the venues etc. If the NCAA does their due diligence and are comfortable that the events can move forward ... awesome. Sorry, I had the mortality rate wrong, I stand corrected that it is at 3.4%. Even worse.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 15:37:34 GMT -5
This thing is everywhere dude. I bet most of us have already had it this winter. The only difference is we're testing for it now. It may be a little worse than the flu, and be more dangerous to the elderly and sick but it's likely well, well passed the point of containment. Also, I heard that the CDC doesn't test for it if you already have the flu. I don't know why. Does that mean that you can't have 2 diseases at once? Makes no sense and likely means more missed cases even on top of the ones that are missed because people don't go the hospital for it. Also, Italians are weird and often think differently. It's a different culture there. They are extremely bureaucratic and reactionary by nature from my experience at work. Can't totally go by them. My ex GF is also an Italian who is dealing with the red zone. She gives me updates whether I want them or not and doesn't really get why they're doing it either. You're the numbers guy ... it's got a 2% mortality rate. You really sure that we've all had it? You can scoff at what Italy is doing, but 630 deaths and 800 more in serious/critical condition is certainly concerning. I get that the hype is through the roof and I am no germaphobe but still, this has a chance to be a significant medical event. I would hate for the NCAA tournament to not happen. I would hate even more for the NCAA tournament to go forward and it negatively affect the health of the student athletes, school officials, fans, workers at the venues etc. If the NCAA does their due diligence and are comfortable that the events can move forward ... awesome. We don't know what the true mortality rate is. How can you know what the mortality rate is if you don't know who has it? I don't believe any mortality rate statistic on this thing yet. Hell, the mortality rate on the flu is probably not 100% right either. The mortality rate assumes you know all the cases of it. We don't. There's people who tested for it but never got sick from it... If there are mild cases, then the mortality rate likely goes way down...because likely tons have it without ever going to the hospital or getting tested in the first place. Also, if a person dies from cancer and tests positive for COVID-19, did they die from COVID-19 or from cancer? Do you know? I certainly don't.
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dacks
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Post by dacks on Mar 10, 2020 15:38:22 GMT -5
Public health professional here... This disease is not a "hoax". The regular flu has a mortality rate of about 0.02%. COVID-19 has a mortality rate around 3.4%, which sky rockets enormously for individuals over the age of 60. The mechanism of spread is not fully understood but the incubation period appears to be alarmingly long. What does this mean? It means that if you get sick, you could unknowingly spread the disease everywhere you go. Which means that older adults and immuno compromised individuals could contract the disease from you and be at a high risk of mortality. So, if you want to make the argument that this is a situation of individual risk, the comparison is actually this: attend your crowded event, THEN voluntarily self-quarantine for 14 days. Otherwise, you have greatly increased the risk of unknowingly spreading this disease to the most vulnerable members of our population. I desperately hope that this is an overreaction and that the virus does not continue to spread in the US. I would MUCH rather have that argument than have done too little too late. Preventive measures have to be aggressive to stand any chance of actually being effective. A sincere thank you for adding some needed accurate perspective to this thread. I know I made a joke, but this isn't anything to be flippant about. I laughed out loud at your post- too funny! No, this is not flippant, but we can still enjoy a good laugh .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 15:40:15 GMT -5
Is it true that the CDC was directing health professionals not to test for COVID-19 if people already had the flu? I am not a direct health care provider, so I am not positive on this, but I have heard lots of reports around testing issues where initial tests were being rationed. My educated guess is that in an effort to use tests most efficiently they ruled out individuals who were already known to have the flu since their symptoms were likely from this. To be clear, availability of tests has greatly improved so this does not appear to be an issue anymore. I was told this by someone whose family member is a direct healthcare provider. I know quite a few people in health care who I play sports with, I can ask them too.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Mar 10, 2020 15:43:53 GMT -5
You're the numbers guy ... it's got a 2% mortality rate. You really sure that we've all had it? You can scoff at what Italy is doing, but 630 deaths and 800 more in serious/critical condition is certainly concerning. I get that the hype is through the roof and I am no germaphobe but still, this has a chance to be a significant medical event. I would hate for the NCAA tournament to not happen. I would hate even more for the NCAA tournament to go forward and it negatively affect the health of the student athletes, school officials, fans, workers at the venues etc. If the NCAA does their due diligence and are comfortable that the events can move forward ... awesome. We don't know what the true mortality rate is. How can you know what the mortality rate is if you don't know who has it? I don't believe any mortality rate statistic on this thing yet. Hell, the mortality rate on the flu is probably not 100% right either. The mortality rate assumes you know all the cases of it. We don't. There's people who tested for it but never got sick from it... If there are mild cases, then the mortality rate likely goes way down...because likely tons have it without ever going to the hospital or getting tested in the first place. Also, if a person dies from cancer and tests positive for COVID-19, did they die from COVID-19 or from cancer? Do you know? I certainly don't. Are you a flat earther too? The CDC and WHO doe this kind of stuff for a living.
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dacks
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Post by dacks on Mar 10, 2020 15:45:53 GMT -5
You're the numbers guy ... it's got a 2% mortality rate. You really sure that we've all had it? You can scoff at what Italy is doing, but 630 deaths and 800 more in serious/critical condition is certainly concerning. I get that the hype is through the roof and I am no germaphobe but still, this has a chance to be a significant medical event. I would hate for the NCAA tournament to not happen. I would hate even more for the NCAA tournament to go forward and it negatively affect the health of the student athletes, school officials, fans, workers at the venues etc. If the NCAA does their due diligence and are comfortable that the events can move forward ... awesome. We don't know what the true mortality rate is. How can you know what the mortality rate is if you don't know who has it? I don't believe any mortality rate statistic on this thing yet. Hell, the mortality rate on the flu is probably not 100% right either. The mortality rate assumes you know all the cases of it. We don't. There's people who tested for it but never got sick from it... If there are mild cases, then the mortality rate likely goes way down...because likely tons have it without ever going to the hospital or getting tested in the first place. Also, if a person dies from cancer and tests positive for COVID-19, did they die from COVID-19 or from cancer? Do you know? I certainly don't. You're right that mortality rates can be difficult to pin down in cases like this. The short answer is it's complicated. Epidemiologists use the best guess they can and continue to adapt their numbers. A few weeks ago the estimate was 2%. It's been somewhat steady at 3-4% recently. It may drop in the near future as more mild cases are confirmed. The long answer? These guys explain it better than I could: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#early-containment-allows-the-healthcare-system-to-provide-care-for-all-who-need-it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 15:46:26 GMT -5
We don't know what the true mortality rate is. How can you know what the mortality rate is if you don't know who has it? I don't believe any mortality rate statistic on this thing yet. Hell, the mortality rate on the flu is probably not 100% right either. The mortality rate assumes you know all the cases of it. We don't. There's people who tested for it but never got sick from it... If there are mild cases, then the mortality rate likely goes way down...because likely tons have it without ever going to the hospital or getting tested in the first place. Also, if a person dies from cancer and tests positive for COVID-19, did they die from COVID-19 or from cancer? Do you know? I certainly don't. Are you a flat earther too? The CDC and WHO doe this kind of stuff for a living. WTF? This virus exists. I'm not denying that. With such a long incubation period you can't stay 'on the trail' of this virus very easily. I think it's way ahead of the media and there are thousands upon thousands of unreported cases. That's all I'm saying.
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IndianSaint
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Post by IndianSaint on Mar 10, 2020 15:53:51 GMT -5
Are you a flat earther too? The CDC and WHO doe this kind of stuff for a living. WTF? This virus exists. I'm not denying that. With such a long incubation period you can't stay 'on the trail' of this virus very easily. I think it's way ahead of the media and there are thousands upon thousands of unreported cases. That's all I'm saying. Stay safe & protect yourself. Only use sterile cornhole beanbags and don’t share them with anyone.
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Post by siena2003 on Mar 10, 2020 15:54:46 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 16:00:28 GMT -5
To be honest, after my bout with Lyme disease last year and the warm winter, I'm less worried about COVID-19 and more worried about mosquito and tick borne diseases this coming summer.
How quickly we have forgotten about things like EEE...which may expand further.
Now, you get something like that, you're really screwed.
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dacks
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Post by dacks on Mar 10, 2020 16:09:39 GMT -5
Admittedly not my normal type of news source, but I think they have some good points. Disease is already here, goal is now to reduce max cases at a time to give our healthcare system the best chance at coping effectively. No panic needed, but action may include some containment if necessary. I will leave it to the epidemiologists in charge to make these difficult calls.
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gorvy
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Post by gorvy on Mar 10, 2020 17:04:12 GMT -5
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