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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2020 13:13:18 GMT -5
Regarding tiebreakers, a lot hinges on Rider's game with SPU and Siena's game with Monmouth.
SPU already swept Monmouth. Siena needs to nullify that @ Monmouth. Rider still has to face Monmouth as well.......only Rider's attempting the split and Siena's attempting the sweep.
Rider is still going for the sweep still at SPU though...which could make Rider jump us in the tie break.
We could also be talking 3-way tie breakers where teams like Monmouth, Iona, Manhattan, and Niagara games all matter. A lot of those games have yet to be played by all the teams.
It's really muddy right now.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2020 13:23:46 GMT -5
The problem is whichever team wins the Rider/SPU game probably will have at least 13 wins.
If Rider wins that game, they have an SPU tiebreaker over Siena....unless Monmouth passes SPU and Siena beats Monmouth...unlikely given SPU's sweep of Monmouth. If SPU wins that game, then Siena needs to beat Monmouth and hope to win the next tiebreaker down the line...vs..maybe Iona (if we win tomorrow). Iona beat Rider already and SPU plays them on last game of season.
Honestly, the best scenario is for Siena to just to hope to win 5 of 6 games and win it outright at 14-6 or better...or become huge Iona fans as they play Rider and SPU down the stretch..
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 18, 2020 13:23:50 GMT -5
Was it you that posted the best case scenarios--- does Siena control its own destiny yet? According to the link nobody controls their own destiny yet: www.playoffstatus.com/metroatlanticbasketball/metroatlanticwinmagicnumbers.htmlIf St Peter's and Siena were to win out it would be extremely convoluted to try and win the tiebreaker since they have swept Monmouth. Would need Fairfield to finish ahead of Monmouth in the standings while losing to Siena in one of their remaining games. Just realized we would have swept Monmouth in this scenario so tiebreaker isn't as bad IF we win at Monmouth. We would need Fairfield to finish ahead of both Manhattan and Niagara.
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Post by knicksaint on Feb 18, 2020 13:45:43 GMT -5
If both Siena and St.Peter's win out, the tie breakers favor St. Peter's as of now. The non-common losses would be Marist and Fairfield for St. Peter's and Niagara and Manhattan for Siena. As of now, Niagara and Manhattan have better records at 7-7 than Fairfield at 6-8 and Marist at 5-9. We would need one of Fairfield or Marist to finish with a better record than both Manhattan and Niagara and that does not appear likely, especialy since our goal is to give each of them another loss to help us have the best possible record.
Don't ask me about ties for a lower place in the standings. I am not going to try to figure that out at this point.
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gorvy
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Post by gorvy on Feb 18, 2020 13:58:43 GMT -5
Just came up with a scenario that has all teams tied at 10-10, unreal.
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Post by Tony on Feb 18, 2020 14:27:00 GMT -5
I think it comes down to if Saints finish
15-5 ( going 6-0) almost certainly win conf 14-6 ( going 5-1) very good chance to win conference outright almost certainly top 2 finish 13-7 ( going 4-2) Probably in tie breakers for 1st and or 2nd- ( could technically finish in top 2 in a tie situation and not get a bye due to tie breakers) 12-8( going 3-3) might get into tie breaker for 2nd but again doesnt look good 11-9 ( going 2-4)almost certainly out of top 2 10-10 or worse just wont get it done
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2020 14:48:44 GMT -5
Tony, might want to check your math on the losses on last 3. Otherwise..yeah..
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Post by greengold4ever on Feb 18, 2020 14:51:16 GMT -5
Just came up with a scenario that has all teams tied at 10-10, unreal. while mathematically that is possible............the way the league results have been happening................not impossible but not very likely (and I only base that on what the teams in this league have to this point shown as more plausible) that any one team goes undefeated in their remaining games nor any one team goes winless in their remaining games..............but heck, that's why we play the games...............
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mike60
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Post by mike60 on Feb 18, 2020 14:51:35 GMT -5
In reading Knick Saint ,not you personally KS, it defies logic for St. Peter losing to teams with worse records than Siena losing to teams with better records being rewarded for that.
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Post by knicksaint on Feb 18, 2020 15:10:40 GMT -5
If Siena and St. Peter's both win out and St. Peter's has a poorer record than Siena against a team at or near the bottom of the standings, it means it also has a better record than Siena against a team higher up in the standings. That is why it would win the tiebreaker.
I probably should have said St. Peter's wins the tiebreaker because it has a better record than Siena against a team higher up in the standings.
If nothing else, we know that we are no worse than the second seed if we win out.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 18, 2020 15:41:41 GMT -5
Here is a Google Sheet that should make it easier to figure out tiebreakers. If it is working as I intended the data and order of standings (both horizontal and vertical) should all update whenever sports-reference updates their data. On the Standings tab you can view a matrix to the right that shows the head to head records. To compare Siena and St Peter's just start with Column Q (which is currently Rider). You can quickly see that St Peter's is 0-1 against Rider while Siena is 1-1 so we could currently have the tiebreaker. If by the end of the season we were both 1-1 then you would move to the next team in Column P (which is currently Monmouth) where St Peter's is currently 2-0 and Siena is 1-0. If we both finished the season 2-0 then the tie continues and you would then move on to the next column until you break the tie. Keep in mind that sports-reference orders the standings on conference record followed by overall record rather than applying MAAC tiebreaking rules. So where you have Manhattan, Iona, and Niagara all tied at 7-7 they are not necessarily in the order of the MAAC tiebreaker. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZS4gvcbiMT1iwv0MF3amFcDUT2jPfBx1kXtsXL3B9N0/edit?usp=sharing
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gorvy
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Post by gorvy on Feb 18, 2020 15:53:21 GMT -5
Here is a Google Sheet that should make it easier to figure out tiebreakers. If it is working as I intended the data and order of standings (both horizontal and vertical) should all update whenever sports-reference updates their data. On the Standings tab you can view a matrix to the right that shows the head to head records. To compare Siena and St Peter's just start with Column Q (which is currently Rider). You can quickly see that St Peter's is 0-1 against Rider while Siena is 1-1 so we could currently have the tiebreaker. If by the end of the season we were both 1-1 then you would move to the next team in Column P (which is currently Monmouth) where St Peter's is currently 2-0 and Siena is 1-0. If we both finished the season 2-0 then the tie continues and you would then move on to the next column until you break the tie. Keep in mind that sports-reference orders the standings on conference record followed by overall record rather than applying MAAC tiebreaking rules. So where you have Manhattan, Iona, and Niagara all tied at 7-7 they are not necessarily in the order of the MAAC tiebreaker. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZS4gvcbiMT1iwv0MF3amFcDUT2jPfBx1kXtsXL3B9N0/edit?usp=sharing. Just looking at the top 4 teams (and I realize they could change) spc and Siena are leading with 3-2 against each other while Monmouth is playing catch up at 1-3. Rider of course is even.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Feb 18, 2020 15:55:41 GMT -5
Here is a Google Sheet that should make it easier to figure out tiebreakers. If it is working as I intended the data and order of standings (both horizontal and vertical) should all update whenever sports-reference updates their data. On the Standings tab you can view a matrix to the right that shows the head to head records. To compare Siena and St Peter's just start with Column Q (which is currently Rider). You can quickly see that St Peter's is 0-1 against Rider while Siena is 1-1 so we could currently have the tiebreaker. If by the end of the season we were both 1-1 then you would move to the next team in Column P (which is currently Monmouth) where St Peter's is currently 2-0 and Siena is 1-0. If we both finished the season 2-0 then the tie continues and you would then move on to the next column until you break the tie. Keep in mind that sports-reference orders the standings on conference record followed by overall record rather than applying MAAC tiebreaking rules. So where you have Manhattan, Iona, and Niagara all tied at 7-7 they are not necessarily in the order of the MAAC tiebreaker. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZS4gvcbiMT1iwv0MF3amFcDUT2jPfBx1kXtsXL3B9N0/edit?usp=sharing. Just looking at the top 4 teams (and I realize they could change) spc and Siena are leading with 3-2 against each other while Monmouth is playing catch up at 1-3. Rider of course is even. I have a feeling that season finale at Monmouth is going to wind up huge.
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gorvy
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Post by gorvy on Feb 19, 2020 8:07:00 GMT -5
Just came up with a scenario that has all teams tied at 10-10, unreal. while mathematically that is possible............the way the league results have been happening................not impossible but not very likely (and I only base that on what the teams in this league have to this point shown as more plausible) that any one team goes undefeated in their remaining games nor any one team goes winless in their remaining games..............but heck, that's why we play the games............... Yeah, I'm not suggesting that it is actually going to happen, but with just 32 games left to go it could. You would be surprised at how easy it was to come up with the scenario.. only had to flip one game after the initial try. Think about it this way, it is more likely for all the teams in the maac to finish 10-10 than somebody picking all the games right in the NCAA tourney. The maac is still the only conference in the country where no team directly ahead or behind them in the standings is more than 1 game apart.
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