Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Jun 10, 2019 14:14:54 GMT -5
My question on Rider. They were good 2 years ago, mediocre last year (including 2 losses to Siena). Some expect them to revert to the form of 2 years ago and feel last year is an aberration. What if two years ago was the aberration and last year the norm? Put another way, I don't think they under-performed last year ... I think they over-performed the year before. I am not saying Siena is the favorite or predicting they will win the league next year. But, as the roster is currently set up, they seem to have some nice answers to the issues they had last year and questions created due to graduation. Iona is the team to beat until someone actually beats them. After that, Siena should be competitive with every team in the MAAC. Rider averaged 16.5 more FGA per game in games vs. Siena last year. Siena had to shoot over 65% just to beat them by 6 in the tourney. Think about that for a second. 65% shooting in order to win a game by just 6 points. That's how many more possessions they were getting than Siena from rebounding/TO Margin etc. I'd argue that it was as much Siena luck than anything else. You can't take Rider for granted given what they've already accomplished before. That's all I'm saying. That was just one game. Siena didn't have to shoot 65% to beat Rider in the other game played on Rider's court. They were 0-2 against a Siena team with Picket, Fisher, and whatever else we could cobble together. That's the key stat to focus on. We are well aware that Siena had to take the air out of the ball and limit their possessions last season with the few viable contributing players having to play big minutes in many cases. That will not be the case this season. I think the key here is to revisit last season's roster compared to the one we expect to have next season. Makes all the difference in the world.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 14:18:18 GMT -5
Rider averaged 16.5 more FGA per game in games vs. Siena last year. Siena had to shoot over 65% just to beat them by 6 in the tourney. Think about that for a second. 65% shooting in order to win a game by just 6 points. That's how many more possessions they were getting than Siena from rebounding/TO Margin etc. I'd argue that it was as much Siena luck than anything else. You can't take Rider for granted given what they've already accomplished before. That's all I'm saying. That was just one game. Siena didn't have to shoot 65% to beat Rider in the other game played on Rider's court. They were 0-2 against a Siena team with Picket, Fisher, and whatever else we could cobble together. That's the key stat to focus on. We are well aware that Siena had to take the air out of the ball and limit their possessions last season with the few viable contributing players having to play big minutes in many cases. That will not be the case this season. I think the key here is to revisit last season's roster compared to the one we expect to have next season. Makes all the difference in the world. Rider took 9 more FGA's in the game at Rider. Taking the air out of the ball has nothing to do with taking more FGA than the team you're actually playing. I'm not sure if you get that. They're playing in the same game under the same clock. Siena won that game because of great FG% defense.
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Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Jun 10, 2019 14:21:36 GMT -5
I'm not taking any team for granted. I dont care about how many Field goals attempts Rider took last year. Siena beat them head to head in only two times they faced Rider, including beating Rider on their home floor. Rider lost some pieces to the last two years, and have some significant question marks, especially in the backcourt. Siena should be significantly improved. As long as Carm can coach I like Siena's chances vs Rider.. Agree with Nola, until beaten Iona is team to beat. Rider is just another MAAC team to me. Not sure why you are showing a 17-16 team with a history of choking under their current coach so much respect- they are certainly a dark horse when it comes to MAAC race. And again no disrespect toward Rider or their coach, it just is what it is Smithen averaged 13.5 PPG, 5 RPG, 2 APG, 3 SPG vs. Rider last year...for what it's worth so it's not like you can just easily claim some kind of superiority over them based on a head to head scenario last year anymore. Smithen, Fisher, Degnan etc are all gone. My point is simply that Iona had the 276th ranked D last year and lost McGill who got them 78 steals and 9 blks...and anchored their team on D and in leadership. With his ball control and ballhawking he largely controlled their TO margin fate. Iona was +0.7 per game in TO margin in conference regular season WITH McGill. Siena was +2.8 Rider was +3.8 Rider is better at Siena's own strength than they are. They also outrebound Siena and have an experienced team with a higher PPS. It would just seem to me that, without McGill, we should be a bit more worried about Rider than people seem to be. Respect Iona, for sure, as anything could change and Cluess finds a way but this Rider team still has a lot of talent and a fair amount of numbers on their side. I get what you're saying. I do. Yes, Smithen, Fisher, and Degnan are gone. An in their place is Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster, etc. Do you see where I'm going with this? On paper we're gaining far more than we lost. If what's on paper resembles reality, we're in good shape against Rider I suspect.
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Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Jun 10, 2019 14:28:19 GMT -5
That was just one game. Siena didn't have to shoot 65% to beat Rider in the other game played on Rider's court. They were 0-2 against a Siena team with Picket, Fisher, and whatever else we could cobble together. That's the key stat to focus on. We are well aware that Siena had to take the air out of the ball and limit their possessions last season with the few viable contributing players having to play big minutes in many cases. That will not be the case this season. I think the key here is to revisit last season's roster compared to the one we expect to have next season. Makes all the difference in the world. Rider took 9 more FGA's in the game at Rider. Taking the air out of the ball has nothing to do with taking more FGA than the team you're actually playing. I'm not sure if you get that. They're playing in the same game under the same clock. Siena won that game because of great FG% defense. Yes, both were playing the same game under the same clock - but what they were doing with that clock was vastly different. Everybody probably had more FGAs than Siena last season, who walked the ball up the court and often took shots as the shot clock expired. Siena was usually only getting one shot per possession the way they were playing and taking up a lot of clock before taking it. And they wouldn't bother to get offensive rebounds for second chance shots. That's probably not how we're going to be playing the game this year.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 14:28:32 GMT -5
Smithen averaged 13.5 PPG, 5 RPG, 2 APG, 3 SPG vs. Rider last year...for what it's worth so it's not like you can just easily claim some kind of superiority over them based on a head to head scenario last year anymore. Smithen, Fisher, Degnan etc are all gone. My point is simply that Iona had the 276th ranked D last year and lost McGill who got them 78 steals and 9 blks...and anchored their team on D and in leadership. With his ball control and ballhawking he largely controlled their TO margin fate. Iona was +0.7 per game in TO margin in conference regular season WITH McGill. Siena was +2.8 Rider was +3.8 Rider is better at Siena's own strength than they are. They also outrebound Siena and have an experienced team with a higher PPS. It would just seem to me that, without McGill, we should be a bit more worried about Rider than people seem to be. Respect Iona, for sure, as anything could change and Cluess finds a way but this Rider team still has a lot of talent and a fair amount of numbers on their side. I get what you're saying. I do. Yes, Smithen, Fisher, and Degnan are gone. An in their place is Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster, etc. Do you see where I'm going with this? On paper we're gaining far more than we lost. If what's on paper resembles reality, we're in good shape against Rider I suspect. My point is simply how many games have 'Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster' played for Siena so far? Siena may have the 'potential' to overtake both Rider and Iona, sure, but you can't just take it for granted...especially with a new coach. My hope is that Carm ups the offensive efficiency, keeps the D top 3 within conference, and that they rebound a bit more so that they can consistently win games easier in the head to head...rather than relying on such shooting extremes as we saw in the 2 games vs. Rider last year. Close the possession gap and improve the offense enough so that Siena becomes the higher ranked team before we have to rely on individual game anomalies. We just don't know how it will play out yet and Rider will bit better Rider than last year, I think.
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$cott
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Post by $cott on Jun 10, 2019 14:29:57 GMT -5
That was just one game. Siena didn't have to shoot 65% to beat Rider in the other game played on Rider's court. They were 0-2 against a Siena team with Picket, Fisher, and whatever else we could cobble together. That's the key stat to focus on. We are well aware that Siena had to take the air out of the ball and limit their possessions last season with the few viable contributing players having to play big minutes in many cases. That will not be the case this season. I think the key here is to revisit last season's roster compared to the one we expect to have next season. Makes all the difference in the world. Rider took 9 more FGA's in the game at Rider. Taking the air out of the ball has nothing to do with taking more FGA than the team you're actually playing. I'm not sure if you get that. They're playing in the same game under the same clock. Siena won that game because of great FG% defense. No, Siena won that game because Rider's team chemistry stunk. There is no reason to think with the same guys coming back that things are going to improve.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 14:30:41 GMT -5
Rider took 9 more FGA's in the game at Rider. Taking the air out of the ball has nothing to do with taking more FGA than the team you're actually playing. I'm not sure if you get that. They're playing in the same game under the same clock. Siena won that game because of great FG% defense. Yes, both were playing the same game under the same clock - but what they were doing with that clock was vastly different. Everybody probably had more FGAs than Siena last season, who walked the ball up the court and often took shots as the shot clock expired. Siena was usually only getting one shot per possession the way they were playing and taking up a lot of clock before taking it. And they wouldn't bother to get offensive rebounds for second chance shots. That's probably not how we're going to be playing the game this year. Siena took more FGA than its direct opposition in both MAAC play and overall. They usually had to in order to win...because their offensive efficiency stunk. In the Rider games though, it came mostly down to FG%. Rider shot a lot worse than Siena in both games.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 14:35:12 GMT -5
Rider took 9 more FGA's in the game at Rider. Taking the air out of the ball has nothing to do with taking more FGA than the team you're actually playing. I'm not sure if you get that. They're playing in the same game under the same clock. Siena won that game because of great FG% defense. No, Siena won that game because Rider's team chemistry stunk. There is no reason to think with the same guys coming back that things are going to improve. That is fair. If you want to say extracurriculars and coaching will cause them to under perform, fine. I'm not guaranteeing a first place Rider finish here. I'm just not discounting it either.
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Post by Tony on Jun 10, 2019 14:59:09 GMT -5
Rider is better at Siena's own strength than they are. They also outrebound Siena and have an experienced team with a higher PPS. Rider was 1 game over 500 and lost both games to Siena head to head-- so save the stats--I'll go on the only stat that really matters - the final score- and on that count Siena was clearly better last year And I'm not saying Rider doesnt have the potential to be decent-- but donks have far more question marks than Siena and quite frankly not as much talent as Siena- if Carm can coach Saints should be better than Rider
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Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Jun 10, 2019 15:00:56 GMT -5
I get what you're saying. I do. Yes, Smithen, Fisher, and Degnan are gone. An in their place is Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster, etc. Do you see where I'm going with this? On paper we're gaining far more than we lost. If what's on paper resembles reality, we're in good shape against Rider I suspect. My point is simply how many games have 'Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster' played for Siena so far? Siena may have the 'potential' to overtake both Rider and Iona, sure, but you can't just take it for granted...especially with a new coach. My hope is that Carm ups the offensive efficiency, keeps the D top 3 within conference, and that they rebound a bit more so that they can consistently win games easier in the head to head...rather than relying on such shooting extremes as we saw in the 2 games vs. Rider last year. Close the possession gap and improve the offense enough so that Siena becomes the higher ranked team before we have to rely on individual game anomalies. We just don't know how it will play out yet and Rider will bit better Rider than last year, I think. Burns, Harris, Carey, Sutherland, and hopefully Webster have played exactly 0 games for Siena so far. I think we all acknowledge that we are operating on hope and speculation here. All I'm saying is if all goes well, then Siena is right there with Rider and Iona if the season started today. But the season isn't starting today - and Iona especially is always good for some off season surprises, whether it be unexpected departures or late additions. I've learned never to consider their roster finalized until the first game of the season.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 15:13:36 GMT -5
Rider is better at Siena's own strength than they are. They also outrebound Siena and have an experienced team with a higher PPS. Rider was 1 game over 500 and lost both games to Siena head to head-- so save the stats--I'll go on the only stat that really matters - the final score- and on that count Siena was clearly better last year And I'm not saying Rider doesnt have the potential to be decent-- but donks have far more question marks than Siena and quite frankly not as much talent as Siena- if Carm can coach Saints should be better than Rider I don't know how you can say Rider has MORE question marks. They were 22-10 2 years ago. Vaughn, Scott, Jordan, Marshall, Randall etc.. they already accomplished that once. If Dimencio Vaughn returns to form alone, they're practically back there again.
By your own argument, Siena was just a game over .500 last year too.
But whatever, I just see it as a 3 team race with each team having the opportunity to take it all if things go their way. I don't know quite how to order the 3 yet. I'm just not counting on any team over the other right now and I think Rider might have the most short term upside.
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Post by Tony on Jun 10, 2019 15:20:35 GMT -5
two years ago is two years ago---
Hey I hope Rider returns to their over achieving selfs.. and Siena still beats them - hopefully 3 times next season- I get you are high on Rider and that's fine, I certainly dont think they will stink, but I dont see them as a serious title contender.
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Post by Tony on Jun 10, 2019 15:32:48 GMT -5
In times of disagreement, I think it’s prudent to bring in the Siena board resident expert on these things, this poster has proven record of consistency of not only predicting Siena’s season but the MAAC in general *( like all of us he is by no means infallible) but his record speaks for itself over the last 20 years, probably not only best on predicting Siena but the entire MAAC - Gorvy—what’s your take on Rider? Or is this too early to tell, are you still in off season mode?
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Post by Tony on Jun 10, 2019 16:40:59 GMT -5
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Post by Tony on Jun 10, 2019 16:43:58 GMT -5
interesting Jaden has Quinny so high, I too think Quinny will be pretty good this year
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