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Post by Tony on May 29, 2019 17:29:06 GMT -5
With Jalen officially back we can finally look ahead to 2019/20 season
Potential- That’s my key word for the 19/20. We are not without question marks, the biggest one is Coach Carm himself, and how does he handle being the head man? I think he’s ready but he has to prove it.
We return IMO the best player in the MAAC in Jalen Pickett- the scary part for MAAC we know from history a players biggest jump is usually between his freshman and sophomore season- if Jalen makes that jump, watch out the MAAC is screwed..LOL, In addition to Jalen making the jump we also have Carey and Seymour poised to make that sophomore jump. Don played plenty as true freshmen at the Mount, had a year to work on his game and get bigger and stronger, I’m expecting good things from Don. Nobody on team has worked harder in weight room than Sloan so far this off season – that also bodes well for us, Sloan played a ton of min last year as a true 18 year old freshmen, we definitely need some rebounding out of Sloan this year- Sloan making the sophomore jump will go a long way toward any success we have this year. Manny is back after a rock solid sophomore season, like to see him shoot foul shots a tad better. Bring In ACC transfer Elijah Burns- another kid bursting with potential, will be one of the most athletic big men in the MAAC, how does Elijah handle being a starter? Can’t wait to see Elijah and Jalen on Pickett and roll. Bring back Sammy after injury for solid depth in the paint, Jimmy Ratliff another kid capable of making sophomore jump. I’m very happy with Matt Hein, with Don and Jalen ( both being soph’s) we were never going to sign a star guard. Matt is ultimate team player. Good size for a guard Rock solid defensive player and has played 20 min a game in a much better conference than MAAC. Two solid freshmen and who knows on Gary Harris, Would be nice pick up, but not holding my breath
In short this team has a lot of potential- but also a lot of question marks- at worst we should be highly competitive in MAAC, at best we will be best team in the MAAC – Our guards are rock solid and probably best in MAAC, good team depth- a lot to like on this team- how it all fits together and how Carm coaches remain to be seen!! How do you see the 19/20 season playing out
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Post by goldsaint17 on May 29, 2019 17:41:32 GMT -5
Good post.
I truly believe Siena has 3 of the 10 best players in the MAAC this year, and all of whom are being put in positions they will be comfortable in which will maximize their strengths. Elijah has constantly been “in the lab” since leaving ND... he is athletic, can shoot, and play inside and out. Carey is smooth... a guy who can shoot the three and get his own shot, something we sorely lacked this past season.
While I’ll obviously concede that Sloan being in the weight room is a positive sign, I’m still not going to count on a ton from him other than shooting the ball. Ideally, Camper is able to improve as a shooter (the shot itself isn’t broken, just needs more arc) and can provide that versatility along with the defensive edge we need.
To win this thing, we need 1-2 guys to step up from Ratliff/Sutherland/Friday and potentially Harris or whichever recruit we sign late.
I’ll set the over/under at 19.5 wins entering the MAAC Tournament.
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Post by MTS on May 29, 2019 17:56:24 GMT -5
Hopefully we can add Harris or another talented player.
We have IMO the best player in the league in Jalen Pickett. We will have one of the best big men in the league in Elijah Burns and a very intriguing SG in Don Carey. I expect Sloan Seymour to make a jump how big we shall see. Manny Camper is a solid player who really only played one year of college basketball.
Though class wise we're young (3 sophs) both Pickett and Carey will be 20 when the season beings and Burns is a 5th year guy (along with Hein)
Bench should be solid - a veteran in Friday, a MVC transfer in Matt Hein plus Ratliff, Young, Sutherland and Darwiche.
If we add one more piece I think we're the favorite (though Iona has earned the distinction from preseason predictions).
I will go over the 19.5 going into the MAAC tournament right now. Since we're playing 29 games (not in a MTE) I'll say 20-9 or 21-8 as a way too early prediction.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 18:50:47 GMT -5
I have little confidence in the bench.
Hein has no offense. Darwiche can be a low volume combo shooter at best. Ratliff and Friday might be ok IF they can stay healthy and Sutherland is a wildcard frosh. That's a lot of question marks.
Camper can't shoot and Seymour can only shoot.
We need more. Other teams are deeper.
The best player in the conference can keep you afloat but he can't do it alone. Carey and Burns have to be better than just good...and either Ratliff or Sutherland have to really step up.
That's a lot to ask.
1 key injury and this team is toast right now.
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Post by Tony on May 29, 2019 19:05:05 GMT -5
I have little confidence in the bench.
Hein has no offense. Darwiche can be a low volume combo shooter at best. Ratliff and Friday might be ok IF they can stay healthy and Sutherland is a wildcard frosh. That's a lot of question marks. Camper can't shoot and Seymour can only shoot. We need more. Other teams are deeper.
The best player in the conference can keep you afloat but he can't do it alone. Carey and Burns have to be better than just good...and either Ratliff or Sutherland have to really step up.
That's a lot to ask.
1 key injury and this team is toast right now.
Here's to hoping you're dead wrong..LOL for what its worth the team does have several question marks. but potential is certainly there for special season!! Wait over, Siena men's basketball ready to charge forward dailygazette.com/article/2019/05/29/wait-over-siena-men-s-basketball-ready-to-charge-forward
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 19:09:58 GMT -5
I have little confidence in the bench.
Hein has no offense. Darwiche can be a low volume combo shooter at best. Ratliff and Friday might be ok IF they can stay healthy and Sutherland is a wildcard frosh. That's a lot of question marks. Camper can't shoot and Seymour can only shoot. We need more. Other teams are deeper.
The best player in the conference can keep you afloat but he can't do it alone. Carey and Burns have to be better than just good...and either Ratliff or Sutherland have to really step up.
That's a lot to ask.
1 key injury and this team is toast right now.
Here's to hoping you're dead wrong..LOL for what its worth the team does have several question marks. but potential is certainly there for special season!! Wait over, Siena men's basketball ready to charge forward dailygazette.com/article/2019/05/29/wait-over-siena-men-s-basketball-ready-to-charge-forwardLand someone who can both score AND defend...and then we can talk title potential. Hopefully, Harris can be that guy and we land him. I just don't feel comfortable on defense right now. And if they NEED Hein a lot....then offense will probably suffer. If we lose either Pickett, Carey, or Burns...it's probably curtains for us. We may even struggle to shoot...and have to overly rely on Seymour...killing rebounding and D. God, I hope Sutherland and Ratliff come to play this year. I think it's the key to the year.
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mike60
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Post by mike60 on May 29, 2019 19:11:52 GMT -5
KK You remind me of a person I once knew who always was looking at the worst possible performance a team might do. I asked him once why he did that instead of the best. I thought he viewed himself a realist, but he just said " I don't want to be disappointed".
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IndianSaint
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Post by IndianSaint on May 29, 2019 19:13:36 GMT -5
I have little confidence in the bench.
Hein has no offense. Darwiche can be a low volume combo shooter at best. Ratliff and Friday might be ok IF they can stay healthy and Sutherland is a wildcard frosh. That's a lot of question marks. Camper can't shoot and Seymour can only shoot. We need more. Other teams are deeper.
The best player in the conference can keep you afloat but he can't do it alone. Carey and Burns have to be better than just good...and either Ratliff or Sutherland have to really step up.
That's a lot to ask.
1 key injury and this team is toast right now.
I don’t necessarily believe our bench will be as bad as you may think. That said, the addition of Burns & Carey will add two more players opposing teams may have to double team in addition to Jalen. If they try and double two of those three that leaves Sloan wide open for 3’s and/or Manny or another to drive to the basket. I think some maybe materially underestimating the value our starting five (which we probably only know 4 of the 5 as of today). Even if we don’t have as deep of a bench, the starters should be able to get comfortable leads so there’s less pressure on the bench. Plus, if our starters stay conditioned, then they’ll be no different than Fran’s years where the starters played most of the game anyway. This is going to be a fun year for Siena basketball!!!
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Post by goldsaint17 on May 29, 2019 19:31:38 GMT -5
As much as I appreciate KK’s analysis re: PPS in particular, because that stuff obviously matters a great deal, I think context is always important in considering analytics.
For instance:
Jalen was told not to push in transition after steals for fear it would leave the defense exposed or speed up the tempo of the game. Those are shots (transition layup with a contest) that draw a lot of fouls and are also pretty darn efficient. He also was forced into probably 3 end-of-clock heaves per game (maybe more). Those are shots that never draw fouls and are very inefficient.
Or, how about the Smithen/Carey swap? Smithen was likely only efficient because of the volume (or lack thereof). There’s a reason teams pretty much allowed him to take 3’s and attack off the bounce if he wanted to in exchange for constant pressure on Jalen. I highly doubt teams will so that with Don, he’ll kill them. So either Don gets lots of very efficient shots or Jalen gets more room to operate. Either way, a good thing for Siena.
You can analyze a fair number of these things.
I would agree that Siena would ideally add an athletic kid who can guard multiple positions and give some scoring punch. Good news is, we are recruiting that kid! His name is Gary Harris.
Siena will have more lineup versatility this year... Burns is quick enough to guard on the perimeter and can shoot the 3... if Friday is in shape we can run out both at once. If we get Harris we can go small with 4 switchable athletes and Burns at the 5.
All of that is without Camper learning to shoot or Seymour learning to play basketball other than shooting. I also think Hein, while he may not be a major plus in any one area, he can probably chew up 15 serviceable minutes of guard depth... he did it at a higher level (ideally he hits 35% from 3).
2 scholarships left, and not a finished product, but I think the core we have in place is dangerous.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 19:38:08 GMT -5
KK You remind me of a person I once knew who always was looking at the worst possible performance a team might do. I asked him once why he did that instead of the best. I thought he viewed himself a realist, but he just said " I don't want to be disappointed". Mike,
If you look back at my overall history predicting the MAAC standings on the MAAC board, I put it up against anyone on these boards. Surprises happen but I'm usually in the ballpark. At this point, I think I know the things to look for. Keep in mind, that if anything historically, I usually pick Siena a place or so above where they probably should be picked. 2 years ago, no one wanted to believe me when I predicted Rider's rise and Monmouth's fall. I picked preseason 7th Rider to come in 2nd...they came in 1st. Monmouth was picked 3rd by the coaches...me 8th...result ...8th. This is just an example. I have some method to my madness....
Last year, I left this board for people getting on me because of my thoughts on Darwiche. I even stated then on the MAAC board....I don't know how people can be so high on Darwiche when Pickett is the key to the year.
A lot of excitement around a guy for whom I have yet to see stats saying he was ever even a double digit scorer in HS...who also has never played the American game.
I get that the kid can handle, pass, and even shoot but I'm not sure he has the aggression to be much more than maybe an Aidas K. type (I would sign up for that now). Another good ballhandler with a jumper is never a problem but this kid might not have the aggressiveness to be true star. While he has a good assist ratio, he doesn't have a good assist rate, isn't on the line often, and doesn't put up a lot of points. He might be a kid who only averages 5, 3, and 3 even if he played a lot of mins. So, the expectations need to really be tempered.
Pickett has done good things in America in HS, AAU, and prep and has shown the ability to fill the stat sheet. If you're going to talk up a guy, it should probably be him.Darwiche's per 30 numbers so far? 4 pts, 1.5 rebs, 1.9 assists. The kid still has to develop to get to the 5,3, & 3 I foresaw.
Last year, I wasn't even paying nearly as close attention as I usually do and I still foresaw a ton of things... This Siena team has a lot of things going for it. They are close...but I'm sorry I just don't think they're quite there yet.
Pickett very well could be Siena's best player this year...and for them to have decent success...he'll probably have to be. If he underperforms, Siena isn't going anywhere.
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Post by Tony on May 29, 2019 19:53:39 GMT -5
As much as I appreciate KK’s analysis re: PPS in particular, because that stuff obviously matters a great deal, I think context is always important in considering analytics. For instance: Jalen was told not to push in transition after steals for fear it would leave the defense exposed or speed up the tempo of the game. Those are shots (transition layup with a contest) that draw a lot of fouls and are also pretty darn efficient. He also was forced into probably 3 end-of-clock heaves per game (maybe more). Those are shots that never draw fouls and are very inefficient. Or, how about the Smithen/Carey swap? Smithen was likely only efficient because of the volume (or lack thereof). There’s a reason teams pretty much allowed him to take 3’s and attack off the bounce if he wanted to in exchange for constant pressure on Jalen. I highly doubt teams will so that with Don, he’ll kill them. So either Don gets lots of very efficient shots or Jalen gets more room to operate. Either way, a good thing for Siena. You can analyze a fair number of these things. I would agree that Siena would ideally add an athletic kid who can guard multiple positions and give some scoring punch. Good news is, we are recruiting that kid! His name is Gary Harris. Siena will have more lineup versatility this year... Burns is quick enough to guard on the perimeter and can shoot the 3... if Friday is in shape we can run out both at once. If we get Harris we can go small with 4 switchable athletes and Burns at the 5. All of that is without Camper learning to shoot or Seymour learning to play basketball other than shooting. I also think Hein, while he may not be a major plus in any one area, he can probably chew up 15 serviceable minutes of guard depth... he did it at a higher level (ideally he hits 35% from 3). 2 scholarships left, and not a finished product, but I think the core we have in place is dangerous. Very good post and right on the mark- Jalen saw just about every gimmick defense possible last year- teams wouldn’t even guard Kadeem until he got the ball. Will be impossible to do with Don next to Jalen. This year’s team is much much more athletic, and much more balanced offensively . Carm wants to push the pace, and we have the players to run, should get a lot more transition baskets this year- Carm is saying 10 to 15 more possessions a game. I expect Carm to take advantage of our depth- we have a lot of guys with experience. Not only do we have personnel to run, we have players to play in half court. Don is very good at creating his shot, so it won’t fall to Jalen all the time at end of clock. Last year’s team had zero depth and was for most part slow a foot, much more depth and addition of Elijah and Don to starting lineup makes us much quicker up and down the court. Don and Elijah had all last year to practice with team, so in theory they should fit in seamlessly And who knows maybe Carm gets another player this year ( Harris would really help) - but I’ve been watching the MAAC since Siena joined the MAAC- the team with best guards almost always wins the MAAC- in Don and Jalen I really like our chances – fact both are only sophomores is a bonus- if Carm can recruit at all this team should get better over next 3 years
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Post by mike60 on May 29, 2019 19:56:56 GMT -5
I have to agree with you. You are a great fan, but somehow ,the manner in which you state things reminds me of that person. And, by the way, to not raise one's expectations too high does help with disappointment. I was just checking and am curious about Manny not being able to shoot. Last year his FG% was 48+. That is not too shabby for someone who can't shoot. He also was fairly good rebounder particularly on the offensive board.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 20:01:55 GMT -5
I have to agree with you. You are a great fan, but somehow ,the manner in which you state things reminds me of that person. And, by the way, to not raise one's expectations too high does help with disappointment. I was just checking and am curious about Manny not being able to shoot. Last year his FG% was 48+. That is not too shabby for someone who can't shoot. He also was fairly good rebounder particularly on the offensive board. Manny can't shoot outside of 10 ft. He's amazing on layups and dunks. He's a great finisher at the rim. He just can't hit jumpers or FTs....even in HS....it was the same. But a kid with his height and athleticism probably doesn't come to Siena if he could shoot in HS.
This is why I say he's effectively a PF. He's best scoring at the rim...and not on the perimeter.
Also, if I'm being negative....it's from the fact that well...I've seen Siena fall short of Iona and others time and time again the last 10 years. I've seen some of what these other teams have on board.
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Post by Sienafan on May 29, 2019 20:11:14 GMT -5
I kinda agree with KK. We need a little more for me to feel confident about this team. If they get Harris that'll go a long way towards easing my guard depth concerns. If he comes, he starts at the 2 or 3 - and the shooting challenged Camper goes to the bench. I also need to see some instant guaranteed offense coming off that bench that Richard would have provided. I don't see it right now.
And then I there's the whole untested first time head coach thing. I have a feeling that Carm is either going to be a total disaster or the next Mark Few. There won't be any grey area there. I won't lie that I'd be more confident if JC was still coach and Walker and Richard were still with us. But they're not. So overall I really have no idea to expect with this team. But Pickett alone will keep them in contention no matter what else happens.
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Post by Tony on May 29, 2019 20:17:54 GMT -5
I kinda agree with KK. We need a little more for me to feel confident about this team. If they get Harris that'll go a long way towards easing my guard depth concerns. If he comes, he starts at the 2 or 3 - and the shooting challenged Camper goes to the bench. I also need to see some instant guaranteed offense coming off that bench that Richard would have provided. I don't see it right now. And then I there's the whole untested first time head coach thing. I have a feeling that Carm is either going to be a total disaster or the next Mark Few. There won't be any grey area there. I won't lie that I'd be more confident if JC was still coach and Walker and Richard were still with us. But they're not. So overall I really have no idea to expect with this team. But Pickett alone will keep them in contention no matter what else happens. I agree Carm is biggest question mark- I mean I think he's ready, but just no way of knowing till ball goes up. For instance I thought Lanier was ready too, on paper resume looked just as good or better than Hewitt's To me that's our biggest question mark - but certainly not the only one- that's why I hesitant to even pick an over/under on wins. My point is the potential is there and I do firmly believe that
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