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Post by goldsaint17 on Feb 20, 2019 14:20:21 GMT -5
Saints are +3.5 per game in TO margin in MAAC play. However, they're -5.4 per game in rebounding margin. PPS Offense = 1.177 PPS Defense = 1.171 Differential = +0.006 The FG% and Fouls are pretty close. Siena is walking a fine line to win games. Good rebounding teams can hurt us most. Siena is extremely fortunate that they don't foul-- if they were giving up even an average number of FT's the numbers would not be in our favor to win. JC has never been over 264th in FT rate on KenPom (though this Siena team is his worst at 337th). He's had 3 years like this one where his teams don't foul almost at all: this year, last year, and his first NCAAT run. He was also clearly above average in his second NCAAT year. The one year he was below average at fouling was his worst year as a coach when he went 14-19. The more his teams force turnovers, the more his teams foul (which makes a ton of sense) but increasing those forced turnovers should get more runouts and also improve our FT rate while upping our possessions. It's a delicate balance that we could make up for some by getting to the line more. Perhaps Pickett's new-found isolation ability combined with his size can get him to the stripe more-- he becomes a Tyler Nelson 1.4 PPS beast by shooting 2 more FT's a game and making them at a 75% clip. That, combined with his passing, would make him one of the most best MAAC players ever and would help our offense out a bunch.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2019 14:26:50 GMT -5
Saints are +3.5 per game in TO margin in MAAC play. However, they're -5.4 per game in rebounding margin. PPS Offense = 1.177 PPS Defense = 1.171 Differential = +0.006 The FG% and Fouls are pretty close. Siena is walking a fine line to win games. Good rebounding teams can hurt us most. Siena is extremely fortunate that they don't foul-- if they were giving up even an average number of FT's the numbers would not be in our favor to win. JC has never been over 264th in FT rate on KenPom (though this Siena team is his worst at 337th). He's had 3 years like this one where his teams don't foul almost at all: this year, last year, and his first NCAAT run. He was also clearly above average in his second NCAAT year. The one year he was below average at fouling was his worst year as a coach when he went 14-19. The more his teams force turnovers, the more his teams foul (which makes a ton of sense) but increasing those forced turnovers should get more runouts and also improve our FT rate while upping our possessions. It's a delicate balance that we could make up for some by getting to the line more. Perhaps Pickett's new-found isolation ability combined with his size can get him to the stripe more-- he becomes a Tyler Nelson 1.4 PPS beast by shooting 2 more FT's a game and making them at a 75% clip. That, combined with his passing, would make him one of the most best MAAC players ever and would help our offense out a bunch. Now that Smithen is playing and we've upped our forcing of TOs...this Siena team is starting to look more like a typical JC team by the numbers. He has always struggled with rebounding...but I guess you would when you forego it in favor of stopping opponents in transition.
Seymour is a big factor in all of this. As good as he shoots, he's killing the rebounding margin. Siena needs to find a way to improve on the boards in the years to come.
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Post by MTS on Feb 20, 2019 16:14:37 GMT -5
I'm usually all about scenarios but this is just too crazy to speculate on, key is getting by Marist on Sunday and going from there. A loss to Marist and a very real scenario could be: Monmouth 11-6 Rider 10-6 Iona 10-7 Quinnipiac 9-7 Canisius 9-7 Marist 9-7 Siena 9-7 Manhattan 9-7 Have to beat Marist and Niagara. If we do that it should lock in the top 5. It's possible 10 wins isn't even good enough for top 5 with tiebreakers. Marist is huge because you don't want to have to go to Buffalo and sweep. If Siena can go 3-0 they probably are no worse than third. I'm sure Ensor wants Siena in the 3-6 game...would be Saturday at 7pm and should draw a big crowd.
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Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Feb 20, 2019 17:24:24 GMT -5
Siena is extremely fortunate that they don't foul-- if they were giving up even an average number of FT's the numbers would not be in our favor to win. JC has never been over 264th in FT rate on KenPom (though this Siena team is his worst at 337th). He's had 3 years like this one where his teams don't foul almost at all: this year, last year, and his first NCAAT run. He was also clearly above average in his second NCAAT year. The one year he was below average at fouling was his worst year as a coach when he went 14-19. The more his teams force turnovers, the more his teams foul (which makes a ton of sense) but increasing those forced turnovers should get more runouts and also improve our FT rate while upping our possessions. It's a delicate balance that we could make up for some by getting to the line more. Perhaps Pickett's new-found isolation ability combined with his size can get him to the stripe more-- he becomes a Tyler Nelson 1.4 PPS beast by shooting 2 more FT's a game and making them at a 75% clip. That, combined with his passing, would make him one of the most best MAAC players ever and would help our offense out a bunch. Now that Smithen is playing and we've upped our forcing of TOs...this Siena team is starting to look more like a typical JC team by the numbers. He has always struggled with rebounding...but I guess you would when you forego it in favor of stopping opponents in transition.
Seymour is a big factor in all of this. As good as he shoots, he's killing the rebounding margin. Siena needs to find a way to improve on the boards in the years to come.
I think improving on the boards is where Young comes in. If that dude manages just half of his absurd H.S. rebound numbers of late, he'll own the paint in the MAAC.
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Post by Tony on Feb 20, 2019 17:43:56 GMT -5
Sloan has got to improve-he gets a pass this year as a 18 year old freshmen, forced into action before he was ready. Next year not so much. Team will have many options, if he doesnt improve he will lose time no matter how well he shoots. I mean he doesnt have to grab 6 boards a game, but damn 2 or 3 a game would be nice
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2019 17:46:09 GMT -5
Now that Smithen is playing and we've upped our forcing of TOs...this Siena team is starting to look more like a typical JC team by the numbers. He has always struggled with rebounding...but I guess you would when you forego it in favor of stopping opponents in transition.
Seymour is a big factor in all of this. As good as he shoots, he's killing the rebounding margin. Siena needs to find a way to improve on the boards in the years to come.
I think improving on the boards is where Young comes in. If that dude manages just half of his absurd H.S. rebound numbers of late, he'll own the paint in the MAAC. Yeah, but can you really count on that kind of impact from a frosh big who is really not that athletic? It's more likely we see a Burns/Friday center tandem most of next year.
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Post by Tony on Feb 20, 2019 17:49:53 GMT -5
I think improving on the boards is where Young comes in. If that dude manages just half of his absurd H.S. rebound numbers of late, he'll own the paint in the MAAC. Yeah, but can you really count on that kind of impact from a frosh big who is really not that athletic? It's more likely we see a Burns/Friday center tandem most of next year. If Sloan/Ratliff dont improve- you may see Young /Friday combination push Burns to 4 for some time
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2019 17:55:51 GMT -5
Yeah, but can you really count on that kind of impact from a frosh big who is really not that athletic? It's more likely we see a Burns/Friday center tandem most of next year. If Sloan/Ratliff dont improve- you may see Young /Friday combination push Burns to 4 for some time A lineup that includes Pickett, Richard, Carey, and Walker ALL together for a period of time could also take time away from the 4....especially if they land another guard if a scholarship opens up.
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Sienafan
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Post by Sienafan on Feb 20, 2019 18:02:11 GMT -5
I don't see Burns at the 4 ever. JC wants three point shooting from the 1-4 positions at all times. KK's scenario of Walker, Carey, Pickett, and Richard on the floor together with a big man at 5 is probably a more likely scenario if Ratliff, Seymour, and Sutherland can't do what's expected.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2019 20:03:26 GMT -5
I don't see Burns at the 4 ever. JC wants three point shooting from the 1-4 positions at all times. KK's scenario of Walker, Carey, Pickett, and Richard on the floor together with a big man at 5 is probably a more likely scenario if Ratliff, Seymour, and Sutherland can't do what's expected. Pickett, Richard, Carey, Walker, Burns could be a pretty interesting offensive lineup to watch. That's a lot of ability off the bounce for each position.
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Quackman
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Post by Quackman on Feb 20, 2019 20:34:04 GMT -5
I think improving on the boards is where Young comes in. If that dude manages just half of his absurd H.S. rebound numbers of late, he'll own the paint in the MAAC. Yeah, but can you really count on that kind of impact from a frosh big who is really not that athletic? It's more likely we see a Burns/Friday center tandem most of next year. I think Friday is going to struggle to get minutes next year unless he completely outclasses Young.
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Post by Tony on Feb 21, 2019 5:05:10 GMT -5
I think improving on the boards is where Young comes in. If that dude manages just half of his absurd H.S. rebound numbers of late, he'll own the paint in the MAAC. Yeah, but can you really count on that kind of impact from a frosh big who is really not that athletic? It's more likely we see a Burns/Friday center tandem most of next year. Our rebounding issues can be traced to 2 main factors that should be addressed. If you look earlier in the year Siena wasn’t routinely getting killed on the boards. When Sammy went down it changed everything, Evan and Kevin started playing 34-38 min a game- way too much for big guys. Rebounding is a lot of effort and those guys were often gassed. Tchougang tried but didn’t give us much. Other issue was playing two freshmen in Seymour and Ratliff- they both need to get bigger and stronger- and they will, remains to be seen how much Next year we will have a more athletic front line and many more bodies, Ratliff and Sloan get a year experience and time to work on their bodies. We shouldn’t have the fatigue factor we had this year. Because of our style we might not out-rebound teams, but I'm confident the margin should be considerably closed
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Post by gorvy on Feb 21, 2019 6:13:46 GMT -5
How about this scenario, 8 tied teams at 10-8:
Canisius loses to Iona Siena Niagara beats monouth 10-8 Monmouth beats quinny loses to Manhattan 10-8 Quinny beats spc loses Manhattan 10-8 Rider loses to Marist and Niagara, beats Iona. 10-8 Siena loses to Niagara and Marist 10-8 Iona loses to Manhattan 10-8 Marist beats spc loses Fairfield 10-8 Manhattan loses to Fairfield 10-8 Niagara beats spc 9-9 Fairfield loses spc 6-12 Spc 4-14
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Post by Tony on Feb 21, 2019 6:57:56 GMT -5
How about this scenario, 8 tied teams at 10-8: Canisius loses to Iona Siena Niagara beats monouth 10-8 Monmouth beats quinny loses to Manhattan 10-8 Quinny beats spc loses Manhattan 10-8 Rider loses to Marist and Niagara, beats Iona. 10-8 Siena loses to Niagara and Marist 10-8 Iona loses to Manhattan 10-8 Marist beats spc loses Fairfield 10-8 Manhattan loses to Fairfield 10-8 Niagara beats spc 9-9 Fairfield loses spc 6-12 Spc 4-14 hahaha that would be perfect ending to this whacky season in MAAC
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Post by greenblood on Feb 21, 2019 8:29:23 GMT -5
How about this scenario, 8 tied teams at 10-8: Canisius loses to Iona Siena Niagara beats monouth 10-8 Monmouth beats quinny loses to Manhattan 10-8 Quinny beats spc loses Manhattan 10-8 Rider loses to Marist and Niagara, beats Iona. 10-8 Siena loses to Niagara and Marist 10-8 Iona loses to Manhattan 10-8 Marist beats spc loses Fairfield 10-8 Manhattan loses to Fairfield 10-8 Niagara beats spc 9-9 Fairfield loses spc 6-12 Spc 4-14 hahaha that would be perfect ending to this whacky season in MAAC This blew my mind!
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